Taking a complexity perspective.
The first paper in this series 17 outlines aspects of complexity associated with complex interventions and health systems that can potentially be explored by different types of evidence, including synthesis of quantitative and qualitative evidence. Petticrew et al 17 distinguish between a complex interventions perspective and a complex systems perspective. A complex interventions perspective defines interventions as having “implicit conceptual boundaries, representing a flexible, but common set of practices, often linked by an explicit or implicit theory about how they work”. A complex systems perspective differs in that “ complexity arises from the relationships and interactions between a system’s agents (eg, people, or groups that interact with each other and their environment), and its context. A system perspective conceives the intervention as being part of the system, and emphasises changes and interconnections within the system itself”. Aspects of complexity associated with implementation of complex interventions in health systems that could potentially be addressed with a synthesis of quantitative and qualitative evidence are summarised in table 2 . Another paper in the series outlines criteria used in a new evidence to decision framework for making decisions about complex interventions implemented in complex systems, against which the need for quantitative and qualitative evidence can be mapped. 16 A further paper 18 that explores how context is dealt with in guidelines and reviews taking a complexity perspective also recommends using both quantitative and qualitative evidence to better understand context as a source of complexity. Mixed-method syntheses of quantitative and qualitative evidence can also help with understanding of whether there has been theory failure and or implementation failure. The Cochrane Qualitative and Implementation Methods Group provide additional guidance on exploring implementation and theory failure that can be adapted to address aspects of complexity of complex interventions when implemented in health systems. 19
Health-system complexity-related questions that a synthesis of quantitative and qualitative evidence could address (derived from Petticrew et al 17 )
Aspect of complexity of interest | Examples of potential research question(s) that a synthesis of qualitative and quantitative evidence could address | Types of studies or data that could contribute to a review of qualitative and quantitative evidence |
What ‘is’ the system? How can it be described? | What are the main influences on the health problem? How are they created and maintained? How do these influences interconnect? Where might one intervene in the system? | Quantitative: previous systematic reviews of the causes of the problem); epidemiological studies (eg, cohort studies examining risk factors of obesity); network analysis studies showing the nature of social and other systems Qualitative data: theoretical papers; policy documents |
Interactions of interventions with context and adaptation | Qualitative: (1) eg, qualitative studies; case studies Quantitative: (2) trials or other effectiveness studies from different contexts; multicentre trials, with stratified reporting of findings; other quantitative studies that provide evidence of moderating effects of context | |
System adaptivity (how does the system change?) | (How) does the system change when the intervention is introduced? Which aspects of the system are affected? Does this potentiate or dampen its effects? | Quantitative: longitudinal data; possibly historical data; effectiveness studies providing evidence of differential effects across different contexts; system modelling (eg, agent-based modelling) Qualitative: qualitative studies; case studies |
Emergent properties | What are the effects (anticipated and unanticipated) which follow from this system change? | Quantitative: prospective quantitative evaluations; retrospective studies (eg, case–control studies, surveys) may also help identify less common effects; dose–response evaluations of impacts at aggregate level in individual studies or across studies included with systematic reviews (see suggested examples) Qualitative: qualitative studies |
Positive (reinforcing) and negative (balancing) feedback loops | What explains change in the effectiveness of the intervention over time? Are the effects of an intervention are damped/suppressed by other aspects of the system (eg, contextual influences?) | Quantitative: studies of moderators of effectiveness; long-term longitudinal studies Qualitative: studies of factors that enable or inhibit implementation of interventions |
Multiple (health and non-health) outcomes | What changes in processes and outcomes follow the introduction of this system change? At what levels in the system are they experienced? | Quantitative: studies tracking change in the system over time Qualitative: studies exploring effects of the change in individuals, families, communities (including equity considerations and factors that affect engagement and participation in change) |
It may not be apparent which aspects of complexity or which elements of the complex intervention or health system can be explored in a guideline process, or whether combining qualitative and quantitative evidence in a mixed-method synthesis will be useful, until the available evidence is scoped and mapped. 17 20 A more extensive lead in phase is typically required to scope the available evidence, engage with stakeholders and to refine the review parameters and questions that can then be mapped against potential review designs and methods of synthesis. 20 At the scoping stage, it is also common to decide on a theoretical perspective 21 or undertake further work to refine a theoretical perspective. 22 This is also the stage to begin articulating the programme theory of the complex intervention that may be further developed to refine an understanding of complexity and show how the intervention is implemented in and impacts on the wider health system. 17 23 24 In practice, this process can be lengthy, iterative and fluid with multiple revisions to the review scope, often developing and adapting a logic model 17 as the available evidence becomes known and the potential to incorporate different types of review designs and syntheses of quantitative and qualitative evidence becomes better understood. 25 Further questions, propositions or hypotheses may emerge as the reviews progress and therefore the protocols generally need to be developed iteratively over time rather than a priori.
Following a scoping exercise and definition of key questions, the next step in the guideline development process is to identify existing or commission new systematic reviews to locate and summarise the best available evidence in relation to each question. For example, case study 2, ‘Optimising health worker roles for maternal and newborn health through task shifting’, included quantitative reviews that did and did not take an additional complexity perspective, and qualitative evidence syntheses that were able to explain how specific elements of complexity impacted on intervention outcomes within the wider health system. Further understanding of health system complexity was facilitated through the conduct of additional country-level case studies that contributed to an overall understanding of what worked and what happened when lay health worker interventions were implemented. See table 1 online supplementary file 2 .
There are a few existing examples, which we draw on in this paper, but integrating quantitative and qualitative evidence in a mixed-method synthesis is relatively uncommon in a guideline process. Box 2 includes a set of key questions that guideline developers and review authors contemplating combining quantitative and qualitative evidence in mixed-methods design might ask. Subsequent sections provide more information and signposting to further reading to help address these key questions.
Compound questions requiring both quantitative and qualitative evidence?
Questions requiring mixed-methods studies?
Separate quantitative and qualitative questions?
Separate quantitative and qualitative research studies?
Related quantitative and qualitative research studies?
Mixed-methods studies?
Quantitative unpublished data and/or qualitative unpublished data, eg, narrative survey data?
Throughout the review?
Following separate reviews?
At the question point?
At the synthesis point?
At the evidence to recommendations stage?
Or a combination?
Narrative synthesis or summary?
Quantitising approach, eg, frequency analysis?
Qualitising approach, eg, thematic synthesis?
Tabulation?
Logic model?
Conceptual model/framework?
Graphical approach?
Petticrew et al 17 define the different aspects of complexity and examples of complexity-related questions that can potentially be explored in guidelines and systematic reviews taking a complexity perspective. Relevant aspects of complexity outlined by Petticrew et al 17 are summarised in table 2 below, together with the corresponding questions that could be addressed in a synthesis combining qualitative and quantitative evidence. Importantly, the aspects of complexity and their associated concepts of interest have however yet to be translated fully in primary health research or systematic reviews. There are few known examples where selected complexity concepts have been used to analyse or reanalyse a primary intervention study. Most notable is Chandler et al 26 who specifically set out to identify and translate a set of relevant complexity theory concepts for application in health systems research. Chandler then reanalysed a trial process evaluation using selected complexity theory concepts to better understand the complex causal pathway in the health system that explains some aspects of complexity in table 2 .
Rehfeuss et al 16 also recommends upfront consideration of the WHO-INTEGRATE evidence to decision criteria when planning a guideline and formulating questions. The criteria reflect WHO norms and values and take account of a complexity perspective. The framework can be used by guideline development groups as a menu to decide which criteria to prioritise, and which study types and synthesis methods can be used to collect evidence for each criterion. Many of the criteria and their related questions can be addressed using a synthesis of quantitative and qualitative evidence: the balance of benefits and harms, human rights and sociocultural acceptability, health equity, societal implications and feasibility (see table 3 ). Similar aspects in the DECIDE framework 15 could also be addressed using synthesis of qualitative and quantitative evidence.
Integrate evidence to decision framework criteria, example questions and types of studies to potentially address these questions (derived from Rehfeuss et al 16 )
Domains of the WHO-INTEGRATE EtD framework | Examples of potential research question(s) that a synthesis of qualitative and/or quantitative evidence could address | Types of studies that could contribute to a review of qualitative and quantitative evidence |
Balance of benefits and harms | To what extent do patients/beneficiaries different health outcomes? | Qualitative: studies of views and experiences Quantitative: Questionnaire surveys |
Human rights and sociocultural acceptability | Is the intervention to patients/beneficiaries as well as to those implementing it? To what extent do patients/beneficiaries different non-health outcomes? How does the intervention affect an individual’s, population group’s or organisation’s , that is, their ability to make a competent, informed and voluntary decision? | Qualitative: discourse analysis, qualitative studies (ideally longitudinal to examine changes over time) Quantitative: pro et contra analysis, discrete choice experiments, longitudinal quantitative studies (to examine changes over time), cross-sectional studies Mixed-method studies; case studies |
Health equity, equality and non-discrimination | How is the intervention for individuals, households or communities? How —in terms of physical as well as informational access—is the intervention across different population groups? | Qualitative: studies of views and experiences Quantitative: cross-sectional or longitudinal observational studies, discrete choice experiments, health expenditure studies; health system barrier studies, cross-sectional or longitudinal observational studies, discrete choice experiments, ethical analysis, GIS-based studies |
Societal implications | What is the of the intervention: are there features of the intervention that increase or reduce stigma and that lead to social consequences? Does the intervention enhance or limit social goals, such as education, social cohesion and the attainment of various human rights beyond health? Does it change social norms at individual or population level? What is the of the intervention? Does it contribute to or limit the achievement of goals to protect the environment and efforts to mitigate or adapt to climate change? | Qualitative: studies of views and experiences Quantitative: RCTs, quasi-experimental studies, comparative observational studies, longitudinal implementation studies, case studies, power analyses, environmental impact assessments, modelling studies |
Feasibility and health system considerations | Are there any that impact on implementation of the intervention? How might , such as past decisions and strategic considerations, positively or negatively impact the implementation of the intervention? How does the intervention ? Is it likely to fit well or not, is it likely to impact on it in positive or negative ways? How does the intervention interact with the need for and usage of the existing , at national and subnational levels? How does the intervention interact with the need for and usage of the as well as other relevant infrastructure, at national and subnational levels? | Non-research: policy and regulatory frameworks Qualitative: studies of views and experiences Mixed-method: health systems research, situation analysis, case studies Quantitative: cross-sectional studies |
GIS, Geographical Information System; RCT, randomised controlled trial.
Questions can serve as an ‘anchor’ by articulating the specific aspects of complexity to be explored (eg, Is successful implementation of the intervention context dependent?). 27 Anchor questions such as “How does intervention x impact on socioeconomic inequalities in health behaviour/outcome x” are the kind of health system question that requires a synthesis of both quantitative and qualitative evidence and hence a mixed-method synthesis. Quantitative evidence can quantify the difference in effect, but does not answer the question of how . The ‘how’ question can be partly answered with quantitative and qualitative evidence. For example, quantitative evidence may reveal where socioeconomic status and inequality emerges in the health system (an emergent property) by exploring questions such as “ Does patterning emerge during uptake because fewer people from certain groups come into contact with an intervention in the first place? ” or “ are people from certain backgrounds more likely to drop out, or to maintain effects beyond an intervention differently? ” Qualitative evidence may help understand the reasons behind all of these mechanisms. Alternatively, questions can act as ‘compasses’ where a question sets out a starting point from which to explore further and to potentially ask further questions or develop propositions or hypotheses to explore through a complexity perspective (eg, What factors enhance or hinder implementation?). 27 Other papers in this series provide further guidance on developing questions for qualitative evidence syntheses and guidance on question formulation. 14 28
For anchor and compass questions, additional application of a theory (eg, complexity theory) can help focus evidence synthesis and presentation to explore and explain complexity issues. 17 21 Development of a review specific logic model(s) can help to further refine an initial understanding of any complexity-related issues of interest associated with a specific intervention, and if appropriate the health system or section of the health system within which to contextualise the review question and analyse data. 17 23–25 Specific tools are available to help clarify context and complex interventions. 17 18
If a complexity perspective, and certain criteria within evidence to decision frameworks, is deemed relevant and desirable by guideline developers, it is only possible to pursue a complexity perspective if the evidence is available. Careful scoping using knowledge maps or scoping reviews will help inform development of questions that are answerable with available evidence. 20 If evidence of effect is not available, then a different approach to develop questions leading to a more general narrative understanding of what happened when complex interventions were implemented in a health system will be required (such as in case study 3—risk communication guideline). This should not mean that the original questions developed for which no evidence was found when scoping the literature were not important. An important function of creating a knowledge map is also to identify gaps to inform a future research agenda.
Table 2 and online supplementary files 1–3 outline examples of questions in the three case studies, which were all ‘COMPASS’ questions for the qualitative evidence syntheses.
The shift towards integration of qualitative and quantitative evidence in primary research has, in recent years, begun to be mirrored within research synthesis. 29–31 The natural extension to undertaking quantitative or qualitative reviews has been the development of methods for integrating qualitative and quantitative evidence within reviews, and within the guideline process using evidence to decision-frameworks. Advocating the integration of quantitative and qualitative evidence assumes a complementarity between research methodologies, and a need for both types of evidence to inform policy and practice. Below, we briefly outline the current designs for integrating qualitative and quantitative evidence within a mixed-method review or synthesis.
One of the early approaches to integrating qualitative and quantitative evidence detailed by Sandelowski et al 32 advocated three basic review designs: segregated, integrated and contingent designs, which have been further developed by Heyvaert et al 33 ( box 3 ).
Segregated design.
Conventional separate distinction between quantitative and qualitative approaches based on the assumption they are different entities and should be treated separately; can be distinguished from each other; their findings warrant separate analyses and syntheses. Ultimately, the separate synthesis results can themselves be synthesised.
The methodological differences between qualitative and quantitative studies are minimised as both are viewed as producing findings that can be readily synthesised into one another because they address the same research purposed and questions. Transformation involves either turning qualitative data into quantitative (quantitising) or quantitative findings are turned into qualitative (qualitising) to facilitate their integration.
Takes a cyclical approach to synthesis, with the findings from one synthesis informing the focus of the next synthesis, until all the research objectives have been addressed. Studies are not necessarily grouped and categorised as qualitative or quantitative.
A recent review of more than 400 systematic reviews 34 combining quantitative and qualitative evidence identified two main synthesis designs—convergent and sequential. In a convergent design, qualitative and quantitative evidence is collated and analysed in a parallel or complementary manner, whereas in a sequential synthesis, the collation and analysis of quantitative and qualitative evidence takes place in a sequence with one synthesis informing the other ( box 4 ). 6 These designs can be seen to build on the work of Sandelowski et al , 32 35 particularly in relation to the transformation of data from qualitative to quantitative (and vice versa) and the sequential synthesis design, with a cyclical approach to reviewing that evokes Sandelowski’s contingent design.
Convergent synthesis design.
Qualitative and quantitative research is collected and analysed at the same time in a parallel or complementary manner. Integration can occur at three points:
a. Data-based convergent synthesis design
All included studies are analysed using the same methods and results presented together. As only one synthesis method is used, data transformation occurs (qualitised or quantised). Usually addressed one review question.
b. Results-based convergent synthesis design
Qualitative and quantitative data are analysed and presented separately but integrated using a further synthesis method; eg, narratively, tables, matrices or reanalysing evidence. The results of both syntheses are combined in a third synthesis. Usually addresses an overall review question with subquestions.
c. Parallel-results convergent synthesis design
Qualitative and quantitative data are analysed and presented separately with integration occurring in the interpretation of results in the discussion section. Usually addresses two or more complimentary review questions.
A two-phase approach, data collection and analysis of one type of evidence (eg, qualitative), occurs after and is informed by the collection and analysis of the other type (eg, quantitative). Usually addresses an overall question with subquestions with both syntheses complementing each other.
The three case studies ( table 1 , online supplementary files 1–3 ) illustrate the diverse combination of review designs and synthesis methods that were considered the most appropriate for specific guidelines.
In this section, we draw on examples where specific review designs and methods have been or can be used to explore selected aspects of complexity in guidelines or systematic reviews. We also identify other review methods that could potentially be used to explore aspects of complexity. Of particular note, we could not find any specific examples of systematic methods to synthesise highly diverse research designs as advocated by Petticrew et al 17 and summarised in tables 2 and 3 . For example, we could not find examples of methods to synthesise qualitative studies, case studies, quantitative longitudinal data, possibly historical data, effectiveness studies providing evidence of differential effects across different contexts, and system modelling studies (eg, agent-based modelling) to explore system adaptivity.
There are different ways that quantitative and qualitative evidence can be integrated into a review and then into a guideline development process. In practice, some methods enable integration of different types of evidence in a single synthesis, while in other methods, the single systematic review may include a series of stand-alone reviews or syntheses that are then combined in a cross-study synthesis. Table 1 provides an overview of the characteristics of different review designs and methods and guidance on their applicability for a guideline process. Designs and methods that have already been used in WHO guideline development are described in part A of the table. Part B outlines a design and method that can be used in a guideline process, and part C covers those that have the potential to integrate quantitative, qualitative and mixed-method evidence in a single review design (such as meta-narrative reviews and Bayesian syntheses), but their application in a guideline context has yet to be demonstrated.
Depending on the review design (see boxes 3 and 4 ), integration can potentially take place at a review team and design level, and more commonly at several key points of the review or guideline process. The following sections outline potential points of integration and associated practical considerations when integrating quantitative and qualitative evidence in guideline development.
In a guideline process, it is common for syntheses of quantitative and qualitative evidence to be done separately by different teams and then to integrate the evidence. A practical consideration relates to the organisation, composition and expertise of the review teams and ways of working. If the quantitative and qualitative reviews are being conducted separately and then brought together by the same team members, who are equally comfortable operating within both paradigms, then a consistent approach across both paradigms becomes possible. If, however, a team is being split between the quantitative and qualitative reviews, then the strengths of specialisation can be harnessed, for example, in quality assessment or synthesis. Optimally, at least one, if not more, of the team members should be involved in both quantitative and qualitative reviews to offer the possibility of making connexions throughout the review and not simply at re-agreed junctures. This mirrors O’Cathain’s conclusion that mixed-methods primary research tends to work only when there is a principal investigator who values and is able to oversee integration. 9 10 While the above decisions have been articulated in the context of two types of evidence, variously quantitative and qualitative, they equally apply when considering how to handle studies reporting a mixed-method study design, where data are usually disaggregated into quantitative and qualitative for the purposes of synthesis (see case study 3—risk communication in humanitarian disasters).
Clearly specified key question(s), derived from a scoping or consultation exercise, will make it clear if quantitative and qualitative evidence is required in a guideline development process and which aspects will be addressed by which types of evidence. For the remaining stages of the process, as documented below, a review team faces challenges as to whether to handle each type of evidence separately, regardless of whether sequentially or in parallel, with a view to joining the two products on completion or to attempt integration throughout the review process. In each case, the underlying choice is of efficiencies and potential comparability vs sensitivity to the underlying paradigm.
Once key questions are clearly defined, the guideline development group typically needs to consider whether to conduct a single sensitive search to address all potential subtopics (lumping) or whether to conduct specific searches for each subtopic (splitting). 36 A related consideration is whether to search separately for qualitative, quantitative and mixed-method evidence ‘streams’ or whether to conduct a single search and then identify specific study types at the subsequent sifting stage. These two considerations often mean a trade-off between a single search process involving very large numbers of records or a more protracted search process retrieving smaller numbers of records. Both approaches have advantages and choice may depend on the respective availability of resources for searching and sifting.
Closely related to decisions around searching are considerations relating to screening and selecting studies for inclusion in a systematic review. An important consideration here is whether the review team will screen records for all review types, regardless of their subsequent involvement (‘altruistic sifting’), or specialise in screening for the study type with which they are most familiar. The risk of missing relevant reports might be minimised by whole team screening for empirical reports in the first instance and then coding them for a specific quantitative, qualitative or mixed-methods report at a subsequent stage.
Within a guideline process, review teams may be more limited in their choice of instruments to assess methodological limitations of primary studies as there are mandatory requirements to use the Cochrane risk of bias tool 37 to feed into Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) 38 or to select from a small pool of qualitative appraisal instruments in order to apply GRADE; Confidence in the Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative Research (GRADE-CERQual) 39 to assess the overall certainty or confidence in findings. The Cochrane Qualitative and Implementation Methods Group has recently issued guidance on the selection of appraisal instruments and core assessment criteria. 40 The Mixed-Methods Appraisal Tool, which is currently undergoing further development, offers a single quality assessment instrument for quantitative, qualitative and mixed-methods studies. 41 Other options include using corresponding instruments from within the same ‘stable’, for example, using different Critical Appraisal Skills Programme instruments. 42 While using instruments developed by the same team or organisation may achieve a degree of epistemological consonance, benefits may come more from consistency of approach and reporting rather than from a shared view of quality. Alternatively, a more paradigm-sensitive approach would involve selecting the best instrument for each respective review while deferring challenges from later heterogeneity of reporting.
The way in which data and evidence are extracted from primary research studies for review will be influenced by the type of integrated synthesis being undertaken and the review purpose. Initially, decisions need to be made regarding the nature and type of data and evidence that are to be extracted from the included studies. Method-specific reporting guidelines 43 44 provide a good template as to what quantitative and qualitative data it is potentially possible to extract from different types of method-specific study reports, although in practice reporting quality varies. Online supplementary file 5 provides a hypothetical example of the different types of studies from which quantitative and qualitative evidence could potentially be extracted for synthesis.
The decisions around what data or evidence to extract will be guided by how ‘integrated’ the mixed-method review will be. For those reviews where the quantitative and qualitative findings of studies are synthesised separately and integrated at the point of findings (eg, segregated or contingent approaches or sequential synthesis design), separate data extraction approaches will likely be used.
Where integration occurs during the process of the review (eg, integrated approach or convergent synthesis design), an integrated approach to data extraction may be considered, depending on the purpose of the review. This may involve the use of a data extraction framework, the choice of which needs to be congruent with the approach to synthesis chosen for the review. 40 45 The integrative or theoretical framework may be decided on a priori if a pre-developed theoretical or conceptual framework is available in the literature. 27 The development of a framework may alternatively arise from the reading of the included studies, in relation to the purpose of the review, early in the process. The Cochrane Qualitative and Implementation Methods Group provide further guidance on extraction of qualitative data, including use of software. 40
Relatively few synthesis methods start off being integrated from the beginning, and these methods have generally been subject to less testing and evaluation particularly in a guideline context (see table 1 ). A review design that started off being integrated from the beginning may be suitable for some guideline contexts (such as in case study 3—risk communication in humanitarian disasters—where there was little evidence of effect), but in general if there are sufficient trials then a separate systematic review and meta-analysis will be required for a guideline. Other papers in this series offer guidance on methods for synthesising quantitative 46 and qualitative evidence 14 in reviews that take a complexity perspective. Further guidance on integrating quantitative and qualitative evidence in a systematic review is provided by the Cochrane Qualitative and Implementation Methods Group. 19 27 29 40 47
It is highly likely (unless there are well-designed process evaluations) that the primary studies may not themselves seek to address the complexity-related questions required for a guideline process. In which case, review authors will need to configure the available evidence and transform the evidence through the synthesis process to produce explanations, propositions and hypotheses (ie, findings) that were not obvious at primary study level. It is important that guideline commissioners, developers and review authors are aware that specific methods are intended to produce a type of finding with a specific purpose (such as developing new theory in the case of meta-ethnography). 48 Case study 1 (antenatal care guideline) provides an example of how a meta-ethnography was used to develop a new theory as an end product, 48 49 as well as framework synthesis which produced descriptive and explanatory findings that were more easily incorporated into the guideline process. 27 The definitions ( box 5 ) may be helpful when defining the different types of findings.
Descriptive findings —qualitative evidence-driven translated descriptive themes that do not move beyond the primary studies.
Explanatory findings —may either be at a descriptive or theoretical level. At the descriptive level, qualitative evidence is used to explain phenomena observed in quantitative results, such as why implementation failed in specific circumstances. At the theoretical level, the transformed and interpreted findings that go beyond the primary studies can be used to explain the descriptive findings. The latter description is generally the accepted definition in the wider qualitative community.
Hypothetical or theoretical finding —qualitative evidence-driven transformed themes (or lines of argument) that go beyond the primary studies. Although similar, Thomas and Harden 56 make a distinction in the purposes between two types of theoretical findings: analytical themes and the product of meta-ethnographies, third-order interpretations. 48
Analytical themes are a product of interrogating descriptive themes by placing the synthesis within an external theoretical framework (such as the review question and subquestions) and are considered more appropriate when a specific review question is being addressed (eg, in a guideline or to inform policy). 56
Third-order interpretations come from translating studies into one another while preserving the original context and are more appropriate when a body of literature is being explored in and of itself with broader or emergent review questions. 48
A critical element of guideline development is the formulation of recommendations by the Guideline Development Group, and EtD frameworks help to facilitate this process. 16 The EtD framework can also be used as a mechanism to integrate and display quantitative and qualitative evidence and findings mapped against the EtD framework domains with hyperlinks to more detailed evidence summaries from contributing reviews (see table 1 ). It is commonly the EtD framework that enables the findings of the separate quantitative and qualitative reviews to be brought together in a guideline process. Specific challenges when populating the DECIDE evidence to decision framework 15 were noted in case study 3 (risk communication in humanitarian disasters) as there was an absence of intervention effect data and the interventions to communicate public health risks were context specific and varied. These problems would not, however, have been addressed by substitution of the DECIDE framework with the new INTEGRATE 16 evidence to decision framework. A d ifferent type of EtD framework needs to be developed for reviews that do not include sufficient evidence of intervention effect.
Mixed-method review and synthesis methods are generally the least developed of all systematic review methods. It is acknowledged that methods for combining quantitative and qualitative evidence are generally poorly articulated. 29 50 There are however some fairly well-established methods for using qualitative evidence to explore aspects of complexity (such as contextual, implementation and outcome complexity), which can be combined with evidence of effect (see sections A and B of table 1 ). 14 There are good examples of systematic reviews that use these methods to combine quantitative and qualitative evidence, and examples of guideline recommendations that were informed by evidence from both quantitative and qualitative reviews (eg, case studies 1–3). With the exception of case study 3 (risk communication), the quantitative and qualitative reviews for these specific guidelines have been conducted separately, and the findings subsequently brought together in an EtD framework to inform recommendations.
Other mixed-method review designs have potential to contribute to understanding of complex interventions and to explore aspects of wider health systems complexity but have not been sufficiently developed and tested for this specific purpose, or used in a guideline process (section C of table 1 ). Some methods such as meta-narrative reviews also explore different questions to those usually asked in a guideline process. Methods for processing (eg, quality appraisal) and synthesising the highly diverse evidence suggested in tables 2 and 3 that are required to explore specific aspects of health systems complexity (such as system adaptivity) and to populate some sections of the INTEGRATE EtD framework remain underdeveloped or in need of development.
In addition to the required methodological development mentioned above, there is no GRADE approach 38 for assessing confidence in findings developed from combined quantitative and qualitative evidence. Another paper in this series outlines how to deal with complexity and grading different types of quantitative evidence, 51 and the GRADE CERQual approach for qualitative findings is described elsewhere, 39 but both these approaches are applied to method-specific and not mixed-method findings. An unofficial adaptation of GRADE was used in the risk communication guideline that reported mixed-method findings. Nor is there a reporting guideline for mixed-method reviews, 47 and for now reports will need to conform to the relevant reporting requirements of the respective method-specific guideline. There is a need to further adapt and test DECIDE, 15 WHO-INTEGRATE 16 and other types of evidence to decision frameworks to accommodate evidence from mixed-method syntheses which do not set out to determine the statistical effects of interventions and in circumstances where there are no trials.
When conducting quantitative and qualitative reviews that will subsequently be combined, there are specific considerations for managing and integrating the different types of evidence throughout the review process. We have summarised different options for combining qualitative and quantitative evidence in mixed-method syntheses that guideline developers and systematic reviewers can choose from, as well as outlining the opportunities to integrate evidence at different stages of the review and guideline development process.
Review commissioners, authors and guideline developers generally have less experience of combining qualitative and evidence in mixed-methods reviews. In particular, there is a relatively small group of reviewers who are skilled at undertaking fully integrated mixed-method reviews. Commissioning additional qualitative and mixed-method reviews creates an additional cost. Large complex mixed-method reviews generally take more time to complete. Careful consideration needs to be given as to which guidelines would benefit most from additional qualitative and mixed-method syntheses. More training is required to develop capacity and there is a need to develop processes for preparing the guideline panel to consider and use mixed-method evidence in their decision-making.
This paper has presented how qualitative and quantitative evidence, combined in mixed-method reviews, can help understand aspects of complex interventions and the systems within which they are implemented. There are further opportunities to use these methods, and to further develop the methods, to look more widely at additional aspects of complexity. There is a range of review designs and synthesis methods to choose from depending on the question being asked or the questions that may emerge during the conduct of the synthesis. Additional methods need to be developed (or existing methods further adapted) in order to synthesise the full range of diverse evidence that is desirable to explore the complexity-related questions when complex interventions are implemented into health systems. We encourage review commissioners and authors, and guideline developers to consider using mixed-methods reviews and synthesis in guidelines and to report on their usefulness in the guideline development process.
Handling editor: Soumyadeep Bhaumik
Contributors: JN, AB, GM, KF, ÖT and ES drafted the manuscript. All authors contributed to paper development and writing and agreed the final manuscript. Anayda Portela and Susan Norris from WHO managed the series. Helen Smith was series Editor. We thank all those who provided feedback on various iterations.
Funding: Funding provided by the World Health Organization Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health through grants received from the United States Agency for International Development and the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation.
Disclaimer: ÖT is a staff member of WHO. The author alone is responsible for the views expressed in this publication and they do not necessarily represent the decisions or policies of WHO.
Competing interests: No financial interests declared. JN, AB and ÖT have an intellectual interest in GRADE CERQual; and JN has an intellectual interest in the iCAT_SR tool.
Patient consent: Not required.
Provenance and peer review: Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.
Data sharing statement: No additional data are available.
Supplemental material: This content has been supplied by the author(s). It has not been vetted by BMJ Publishing Group Limited (BMJ) and may not have been peer-reviewed. Any opinions or recommendations discussed are solely those of the author(s) and are not endorsed by BMJ. BMJ disclaims all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the content. Where the content includes any translated material, BMJ does not warrant the accuracy and reliability of the translations (including but not limited to local regulations, clinical guidelines, terminology, drug names and drug dosages), and is not responsible for any error and/or omissions arising from translation and adaptation or otherwise.
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Scientific Reports volume 14 , Article number: 20461 ( 2024 ) Cite this article
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The construction models of smart cities and low-carbon cities are crucial for advancing global urbanization, enhancing urban governance, and addressing major urban challenges. Despite significant advancements in smart and low-carbon city research, a consensus on their coupling coordination remains elusive. This study employs mixed-method research, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses, to investigate the coupling coordination between urban smart performance (SCP) and low-carbon level (LCL) across 52 typical smart and low-carbon pilot cities in China. Independent evaluation models for SCP and LCL qualitatively assess the current state of smart and low-carbon city construction. Additionally, an Entropy–TOPSIS–Pearson correlation–Coupling coordination degree (ETPC) analysis model quantitatively examines their relationship. The results reveal that smart city initiatives in China significantly outperform low-carbon city development, with notable disparities in SCP and LCL between eastern, non-resource-based, and central cities versus western, resource-dependent, and peripheral cities. A strong positive correlation exists between urban SCP and overall LCL, with significant correlations in management, society, and economy, and moderate to weak correlations in environmental quality and culture. As SCP levels improve, the coupling coordination degree between the urban SCP and LCL systems also increases, driven primarily by economic, management, and societal factors. Conversely, the subsystems of low-carbon culture and environmental quality show poorer integration. Based on these findings, this study proposes an evaluation system for smart and low-carbon coupling coordination development, outlining pathways for future development from the perspective of urban complex systems.
Introduction.
Cities, as centers of population and economy, play crucial roles in cultural exchange, social integration, transportation, communication, and disaster response in modern societal development 1 , 2 . According to the United Nations Human Settlements program’s “2022 World Cities Report”, as of 2021, the global urbanization rate has reached 56%, and it is projected that by 2050, an additional 2.2 billion people will live in cities, increasing the urbanization rate to 68% 3 . North America and European countries are approaching urbanization saturation, with little fluctuation expected, while urbanization in Asia and Africa will accelerate notably 4 . Particularly in China, the world’s second-largest economy, as of 2022, the urbanization rate is only 64.7%, ranking 96th globally, indicating significant potential for growth compared to developed countries like the USA and the UK 5 . The Chinese government places high importance on urbanization development. It was clearly stated in the “2020 State Council Government Work Report” that new urbanization is a key measure for achieving China’s modernization. Moreover, in the “14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035”, detailed strategies are outlined for optimizing the urban layout and promoting urban–rural integration, among other policies to advance urbanization 6 . However, urbanization, as a process of continuous concentration of population and industrial elements in cities, while bringing opportunities for economic growth and social development, also presents a series of challenges such as environmental pressure, resource constraints, and increased demand for services 7 , 8 .
In 2008, the American company IBM introduced the concept of a “Smart Planet”, which garnered widespread attention globally 9 . The concept of a smart city, as a specific application within this framework, aims to enhance urban management and service efficiency through the integration and innovative application of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), thereby improving the quality of life for residents, optimizing resource use, reducing environmental impact, and promoting economic development and social progress 10 , 11 . Currently, the smart city construction model is seen as one of the effective means to advance global urbanization, improve urban governance, and solve major urban issues 12 . In 2009, IBM released the “Smart Planet: Winning in China” plan, outlining China’s five major thematic tasks in constructing a “Smart Planet” (sustainable economic development, corporate competitiveness, energy efficiency, environmental protection, and social harmony) 13 . The construction of smart cities, as a key measure to achieve these thematic tasks, has received significant attention from the Chinese government. In 2014, the Chinese government elevated smart city construction to a “national strategy”, considering it a cornerstone of China’s future economic and urban development strategies. By 2016, over 500 Chinese cities had initiated or announced smart city pilot construction plans, accounting for nearly half of all such projects planned or underway globally 14 . In recent years, with the continuous release of policy benefits related to smart city construction in China and substantial capital investment, China has become a leader in driving global smart city initiatives 15 . However, an undeniable fact is that while smart city construction models promote economic development and improve the quality of life for residents, the new infrastructure supporting the operation of smart cities, such as big data centers, 5G shared base stations, and Beidou ground-based augmentation stations, result in substantial energy consumption and significant carbon emissions 16 . Research shows that in 2018, the total electricity consumption of data centers in China supporting IT infrastructure reached 160.9 billion kilowatt-hours, exceeding the total electricity consumption of Shanghai for that year and accounting for about 2% of China’s total electricity consumption, with carbon emissions nearing 100 million tons 17 . The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) predicts that by 2035, the total electricity consumption of China’s data centers and 5G base stations will reach 695.1–782 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 5–7% of China’s total electricity consumption, with total carbon emissions reaching 230–310 million tons 18 .
In 2022, global energy-related CO 2 emissions increased by 0.9%, reaching a record high of over 36.8 Gt. Concurrently, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations continued to rise, averaging 417.06 parts per million, marking the eleventh consecutive year with an increase exceeding 2 ppm 19 . According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the global surface temperature in September 2023 was 1.44 °C higher than the twentieth century average, setting a new historical record 20 . The continuous rise in global temperatures has led to frequent occurrences of disastrous events such as extreme heat, torrential rains, floods, forest fires, and hurricanes in recent years, causing significant loss of life and property damage 21 . World Health Organization (WHO) data indicates that in 2022, there were at least 29 weather disaster events globally causing billions of dollars in losses, with approximately 61,672 deaths in Europe due to heatwave-related causes 22 . As global climate issues become increasingly severe, the call for global carbon emission reduction is growing louder. Cities, as highly concentrated areas of population and economic activities, according to the Global Report by the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), consume 60–80% of the global energy and contribute to over 75% of global CO 2 emissions 23 . As the largest global emitter of carbon, China’s CO 2 emissions in 2022 accounted for 27% of the global total 24 . Given China’s influence in the global economy, technological innovation, and international cooperation, international organizations and global climate policies generally believe that China’s efforts in carbon reduction are crucial to achieving the global 1.5 °C climate goal 25 . In recent years, the Chinese government has actively promoted the construction of low-carbon pilot cities. To date, three batches of low-carbon pilot cities have been implemented in China, bringing the total number of such cities to 81 26 .
However, the report “China’s Digital Infrastructure Decarburization Path: Data Centers and 5G Carbon Reduction Potential and Challenges (2020–2035)” indicates that compared to peak carbon emissions expected around 2025 in key sectors like steel, building materials, and non-ferrous metals in China, the “lock-in effect” of carbon emissions from digital infrastructure poses a significant challenge to achieving China’s peak carbon and carbon neutrality goals 27 , 28 , 29 . Given the urgency of global climate change, it raises the question of the correlation between smart cities and low-carbon cities: is it positive, negative, or non-existent? Should the pace of smart city development be slowed to achieve sustainable urban development goals, considering the significant carbon dioxide emissions resulting from current technological choices, social habits, and policy frameworks? To address these practical issues, it is first essential to conduct an objective and accurate assessment of urban SCP and LCL. However, due to the complexity and diversity of urban carbon emissions sources, current measurement and estimation techniques fail to capture all emission types. This limitation hampers the ability to obtain comprehensive, accurate, and timely city-level carbon emission data 30 , 31 . To address this challenge, this paper decomposes smart cities and low-carbon cities into their interdependent and interactive subsystems (i.e., economic, political, cultural, social, and ecological) viewed through the lens of urban complex systems. It then develops evaluation models for both city types and conducts empirical analyses in 52 representative Chinese pilot cities. Based on these analyses, the paper elucidates the coupling coordination degree between SCP and LCL and proposes a specific pathway for their coordinated development.
This paper is therefore structured as follows: “ Literature review ” section offers an overview of the relevant literature, laying the foundation for the introduction of SCP and LCL. Subsequently, SCP and LCL are identified clearly, and measurement based on a mixed method for the coupling coordination degree is established in “ Methodology ” section, followed by a case demonstration for the introduced method in “ Results ” section and the demonstration results analysis in “ Discussions and implications ” section. Finally, “ Conclusions ” section summarizes the study’s main findings and contributions, discusses its limitations, and suggests directions for future research.
Evaluation of smart city: contents, methods, and subjects.
The evaluation of smart cities is a central research area within the smart city development field. Developing standardized evaluation criteria serves the dual purpose of defining smart city development boundaries and scientifically measuring its effectiveness. This, in turn, facilitates the achievement of development goals centered on evaluation-driven construction, improvement, and management 32 . We conducted data collection on “smart city*” AND “evaluation”, resulting in the selection of 82 articles. This involved an extensive search of the Wos Core Collection database for articles published in the period from January 2019 to January 2024.
To facilitate a clearer understanding for readers of current research on smart city evaluation, we have categorized it by evaluation contents , evaluation methods , and evaluation subjects .
Cluster1-evaluation contents (what to evaluate), including smart city evaluation dimensions and indicators. By analyzing the article content, it’s clear that most smart city evaluation approaches align with six core dimensions: economy, quality of life, governance, people, mobility, and environment 13 , 15 . Centered around these six dimensions, international organizations (ISO, ETSI, UN, and ITU) and scholars have established various sets of smart city evaluation indicators, considering the interdependencies among urban economic, environmental, and social factors, all in alignment with the goals of sustainable urban development 32 , 33 , 34 . Notably, Sharifi 35 compiled a comprehensive list of indicators incorporating a wide range of assessment schemes. This list not only covers the scope of the evaluation indicators (project/community/city) and their data types (primary/secondary) but also considers the stages of smart city development (planning/operation) and stakeholder involvement 36 . Subsequent research predominantly utilizes the same criteria as Sharifi 35 to identify indicator sets, taking into account the specific needs of each city and defining the spatial and temporal scales of the indicator sets 37 .
Cluster 2-evaluation methods (How to evaluate) , including smart city evaluation methods and tools. Research in this field focuses on three main areas: identifying evaluation indicators for smart cities, computing composite index, and developing evaluation models 38 , 39 . Methods for indicator identification mainly include literature review, case studies, brainstorming, the Delphi method, and data-driven techniques 40 , 41 . The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is commonly used for calculating composite indices, yet it faces issues like subjective biases and data size limitations 42 . Alternative methods, such as the Analytical Network Process (ANP) and the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), are used to address these drawbacks by simulating inter-indicator interactions. Additionally, techniques like Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) are applied for indicator weighting. Finally, smart city evaluation models are constructed to aggregate various dimensions and indicators into a unified score, facilitating project comparison and ranking, and highlighting areas needing improvement 43 , 44 .
Cluster 3-evaluation subjects (Who performs the evaluation) , including smart city stakeholders and participants. Smart city evaluations involve various stakeholders and participants. These complex processes see each entity, including government agencies, international organizations, academic institutions, industry sectors, and NGOs, contributing to the smart cities’ planning, development, and management 45 , 46 . Key organizations in this realm are the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), International Telecommunication Union (ITU), United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), Smart Cities Council, European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT Urban Mobility), and World Council on City Data (WCCD). Additionally, numerous countries have established their own smart city evaluation standards to direct and review smart city progress 11 . Notable examples are the “One New York: The Plan for a Strong and Just City” in the USA, the “BSI PAS 180” in the UK, Singapore's “Smart Nation Initiative”, and China’s “National New-type Smart City Evaluation Indicator System”.
As more countries integrate low-carbon city development into their national strategies and plans, conducting scientific evaluations of cities’ current low-carbon development levels to encourage them to adopt corresponding measures for improvement has become a key strategy in advancing cities towards a low-carbon future 47 . In the Wos Core Collection database, we conducted a search for studies spanning January 2018 to January 2023 with “low-carbon city*” AND “evaluation” as keywords, subsequently identifying 98 pertinent articles through two rounds of screening.
This section, maintaining the research framework of “ Evaluation of smart city: contents, methods, and subjects ” section ( evaluation contents, methods, and subjects ), organizes low-carbon city research to enable comparison with smart city evaluations.
Cluster 1-evaluation contents (what to evaluate), including low-carbon city evaluation systems, dimensions, and indicators. Current research focusing on low-carbon cities primarily spans six key domains: urban low-carbon scale, energy, behavior, policy, mobility, and carbon sinks. The evaluation dimensions for low-carbon cities are mainly divided into two types: single-criterion systems concentrating on specific low-carbon aspects (such as low-carbon economy, low-carbon energy, etc.), and comprehensive multi-criteria systems assessing the overall urban low-carbon development 48 , 49 . Compared to single-criterion evaluation systems, comprehensive and multi-criteria evaluation systems are increasingly gaining attention from scholars. These scholars share the view that low-carbon city construction is a diverse, dynamic, interconnected process that requires comprehensive consideration of various urban aspects, including economy, society, and environment, and involves coordinating the actions of different stakeholders to achieve sustainable urban development 50 , 51 . Additionally, international institutions and many national governments have also published low-carbon city evaluation frameworks from the perspective of comprehensive and multi-criteria evaluation systems. The most notable examples include the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development, which set 30 indicators from four dimensions: social, environmental, economic, and institutional, to evaluate the level of urban low-carbon development. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences proposed the “China Low Carbon City Indicator System”, covering 8 dimensions such as economy, energy, facilities, and 25 specific indicators including energy intensity, per capita carbon emissions, and forest coverage rate.
Cluster 2-evaluation methods (How to evaluate) , including low-carbon city evaluation methods and tools. Firstly, identifying evaluation indicators as the initial step in constructing a low-carbon city evaluation model, current research methods not only include traditional methods like literature review and expert interviews but also increasingly involve scholars using dynamic perspectives based on urban complex systems, applying models like DPSR (Driving forces-Pressures-State-Response), STIRPA (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology), the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), and STEEP (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, and Political) for indicator identification 52 , 53 . Secondly, weighting evaluation indicators, an essential part of model construction, typically involves methods like subjective weighting (expert scoring, Delphi method, AHP) 54 , objective weighting (PCA, Entropy weight method, variance analysis), and combined weighting (DEA) 55 . Each method has its characteristics and suitable scenarios and should be selected according to specific circumstances. Additionally, quantitative assessment of regional carbon emissions using methods like carbon footprint analysis, baseline emission comparison, and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is also becoming a research focus 56 .
Cluster 3-evaluation subjects (Who performs the evaluation) , including low-carbon city stakeholders and participants. The evaluation of low-carbon cities also involves multiple stakeholders (government, enterprises, residents, etc.) 57 . Among them, international organizations like the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have played significant roles in establishing low-carbon city evaluation standards and promoting global low-carbon city development. Additionally, due to economic, policy, and perception factors, current low-carbon city construction relies primarily on government financial input, with social capital and public participation in low-carbon city construction noticeably lacking 58 . Therefore, how to enhance the awareness of enterprises and residents as main actors in low-carbon city construction has become a current research focus.
Smart cities and low-carbon cities, as important urban development models for the future, have seen an increasing focus on their interrelation by scholars in recent years, becoming an emerging research hotspot in the field. In the Wos Core Collection database, we searched for studies from January 2018 to January 2024 using the keywords “smart city*” “low-carbon city*” “correlation analysis” “coupling coordination analysis” and “urban sustainability”. After two rounds of screening, 24 related studies were selected for analysis.
From the perspective of research results, the current research conclusions about the correlation between low-carbon cities and smart cities primarily include two main points: (i) SCP and LCL cannot achieve coupling coordination development. Some scholars argue that SCP and LCL differ in their focus: SCP emphasizes urban technological and economic development, while LCL focuses more on urban ecological construction 17 . Particularly, De Jong identified 12 urban development concepts, including smart city, low-carbon city, eco-city, and green city. He believes that a clear distinction must be made in the conceptual definition of these types of cities to more accurately guide future urban planning 59 . Furthermore, some scholars argue that the relationship between SMC and LCC is negatively correlated. Deakin believes that the direct environmental benefits of IoT technology are insufficient to achieve urban sustainability goals 60 . Barr et al. argue that the logic of smart cities often leads city administrations to prioritize superficial changes and promote individual behavioral shifts, detracting from the crucial task of reconfiguring urban infrastructure for low-carbon lifestyles 61 , 62 . (ii) SCP and LCL can achieve coupling coordination development. Some scholars believe there is a positive correlation between SCP and LCL, with SCP potentially promoting the development of LCL. Specifically, the intelligent systems built by SCP can effectively match urban energy supply and demand, reducing urban carbon emissions, such as through smart grids and intelligent transportation networks 18 . It is worth noting that most of the studies on the coupling coordination relationship between urban SCP and LCL are based on perspectives of individual urban subsystems such as technology, economy, management, industrial structure, and society. They lack a comprehensive consideration of the city as a complex system 59 , 61 , 63 .
From the perspective of research methodologies, coupling coordination analysis is a fundamental statistical approach for examining relationships between two or more variables. This analysis typically employs techniques such as Pearson’s correlation coefficient, Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, Kendall’s tau, partial correlation, point-biserial correlation, and multiple correlations. Each technique offers unique insights into the nature and strength of the interdependencies among variables 61 . The selection of an appropriate method depends on the data type (continuous, ordinal, or categorical), its distribution (e.g., normal distribution), and the specific objectives of the research.
In summary, although existing research has made significant contributions to the independent evaluation and advancement of smart cities and low-carbon cities, including their relevant construction content, main actors, as well as some specific measures such as empowering cities with data intelligence for low-carbon economic development and transitioning industrial structure to low-carbon, there are still some important knowledge gaps. On the one hand, current research primarily analyzes the coupling coordination relationship between urban SCP and LCL from the micro-perspective of individual urban subsystems such as economic and energy systems. This approach lacks a macroscopic perspective from the complex urban system, which is detrimental to the comprehensive development of cities 60 , 64 , 65 . On the other hand, current studies often only conduct basic qualitative comparisons of the relationship between the development levels of urban SCP and LCL from a quantitative or qualitative perspective. They lack a comprehensive analytical approach that integrates both qualitative and quantitative analyses for further exploration of the coupling coordination relationship between urban SCP and LCL. This shortfall hinders the sustainable development of cities.
To fill these knowledge gaps, this study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses, to examine the model of coupling coordination between urban SCP and LCL. It also develops recommendations to enhance this coupling coordination, aiming to support sustainable development goals. Furthermore, this research selects 52 typical low-carbon and smart pilot cities in China as case studies, ensuring both scientific validity and practical applicability of the findings. Additionally, to enhance the logical coherence and readability of this study, we posit that a coupling coordination relationship exists between urban SCP and LCL and thus propose Hypothesis 1 .
There is a substantial degree of coupling coordination between the overall urban system’s SCP and LCL, yet there are disparities in this coordination degree among the subsystems of economy, society, politics, culture, and ecology.
Research framework.
The construction of low-carbon and smart cities, as key pathways to urban sustainability, necessitates examining their interplay and fostering their collaborative development for achieving sustainability goals 66 . This research employs a sequential framework, including Conceptual, Data, Analysis, and Decision-making Layers, to methodically explore the coupling coordination relationship between SCP and LCL, with the framework illustrated in Fig. 1 .
Research framework.
Firstly , in the Conceptual Layer, this study aligns with the United Nations’ objectives for sustainable cities, encompassing economic growth, social equity, better life conditions, and improved urban environments. Integrating these with China’s “Five-Sphere Integrated Plan (economy, politics, culture, society, and ecological environment construction)” for urban development, the research dissects the components of smart city systems (such as information infrastructure, information security, public welfare services) and low-carbon city systems (including low-carbon construction, transportation, and industry), with the aim to collect indicators. Secondly , in the Data Layer, this research develops smart city and low-carbon city evaluation systems, grounded in national standards and official statistics, to qualitatively examine the correlation between SCP and LCL from a macro perspective. Thirdly, in the Analysis Layer, this study selects 52 cities, both smart and low-carbon pilot cities in China, as samples for quantitative analysis. The process involves standardizing indicators, scoring and ranking the cities based on their smart performance and low-carbon levels, followed by employing Pearson’s correlation coefficient and coupling coordination degree model to scientifically analyze the correlation between SCP and LCL. Finally, in the Decision-making Layer, the study examines the coupling coordination relationship between urban smart performance, the overall low-carbon level, and the low-carbon level across five dimensions, which is key for us to test Hypothesis 1 . It also formulates development paths for the coupling coordination of smart and low-carbon cities.
Since the concept of smart cities was introduced in 2008, many national governments have established smart city evaluation standards. Due to varying national conditions, SCP evaluation indicators differ across countries. As the sample cities in this study are Chinese smart pilot cities, the selection of SCP evaluation indicators primarily references relevant Chinese national standards. As a global pioneer in smart city development, China released the “Evaluation indicators for new-type smart cities (GB/T 33356-2016)” in 2016 and revised it in 2022. This national standard, with its evaluative indicators, clearly defines the key construction content and development direction of new smart cities, aiming to specifically enhance the effectiveness and level of smart city construction, gaining significant recognition within the industry.
This study, grounded in the concept of a city’s “Five-in-One” sustainable development, is guided by three principles of “Inclusive well-being & Ecological harmony”, “Digital space & Physical space”, and “New IT technologies & Comprehensive services”. It also adheres to the “people-oriented concept” and adopts an “urban complex dynamic perspective” in the process of smart city construction. Additionally, it follows the principle of “similar attributes of evaluation objects”. Based on these foundations, the study establishes three criteria for selecting evaluation indicators, including scientific, coordination, and representation. Drawing on the Chinese government’s smart city evaluation standards and utilizing a literature review methodology, this research constructs an SCP evaluation indicator system for cities, as detailed in Supplementary Appendix Table A1 . The SCP index system includes six primary indicators, including smart public service (SPE), precise governance (PG), information infrastructure (II), digital economy (DE), innovative development environment (IDE), and citizen satisfaction (SCS). It also features 24 secondary indicators, such as traffic information services, grassroots smart governance, and spatio-temporal information platforms. Importantly, to explore the correlation between smart cities and low-carbon cities more effectively, the study deliberately omits “Internet + Green Ecology” related indicators from the smart city evaluation system. To ensure the accuracy and representativeness of these indicators, they were validated through expert consultation, public participation, and comprehensive statistical methods.
Current international organizations and academic perspectives on low-carbon city evaluation systems are predominantly based on the urban complex systems approach, considering the interplay and interaction of aspects such as low-carbon society, economy, and technology. Consistent with the principles for selecting SCP evaluation indicators, the choice of LCL evaluation indicators in this study primarily adheres to relevant Chinese national standards and related literature.
As a proactive practitioner in global low-carbon city development, in 2021, the Chinese government released the “Sustainable Cities and Communities—Guides for low-carbon development evaluation (GB/T 41152-2021)”. This national standard evaluates the level of urban low-carbon development, clarifying the key directions for such development, and serves as a current guide for low-carbon city construction in China. Thus, this study, grounded in the “Five-in-One” sustainable urban development framework and guided by the principles of “carbon reduction & pollution reduction”, “green economic growth”, and “enhanced carbon sequestration capacity”, combines the previously established principles of scientific, coordination, and representative for selecting evaluation indicators. It establishes an LCL index system based on the Chinese government’s evaluation standards and relevant literature. Specifically, the LCL evaluation index system constructed in this study includes five primary indicators, including low-carbon economic (LCE), low-carbon society (LCS), low-carbon environmental quality (LCEQ), low-carbon management (LCM), and low-carbon culture (LCC), as well as 22 secondary indicators such as energy consumption per unit of GDP and carbon emission intensity, as shown in Supplementary Appendix Table A2 . Similarly, to ensure the accuracy and representativeness of the indicators, the specific indicators were validated through expert consultation, public participation, and comprehensive statistical methods.
In this study, an Entropy-TOPSIS-Pearson correlation-Coupling coordination degree (ETPC) analysis model is constructed to quantitatively analyze the coupling coordination relationship between Urban SCP and LCL. The entropy method is first applied for objective weighting of evaluation indices, ensuring data objectivity and reducing subjective bias, thus enhancing the model’s accuracy and fairness. Next, the TOPSIS method is used to rank sample cities based on their smart performance and low-carbon levels, providing a straightforward and intuitive ranking mechanism. The Pearson correlation method then examines the correlation between SCP and LCL, offering data-driven insights into the dynamic relationships between these variables. Finally, the coupling coordination model calculates the degree of coordination between SCP and LCL, providing a theoretical basis for subsequent enhancement pathways and policy recommendations. The ETPC model constructed in this study has several advantages and complementarities, allowing for a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the research question from various perspectives. Additionally, the ETPC model can be broadly applied to other multidimensional evaluation and decision analysis issues, such as the coupling coordination between various public health interventions and community health levels, and the comprehensive effects of different economic policies on regional economic development and environmental impact. Specific analysis steps are outlined as follows.
Step 1: Conduct the data normalization process.
where x ij and y ij represent respectively the original and standardized value for the indicator j in referring to the sample case i ( i = 1,2,3,…, m; j = 1,2,3,…, n ), max (x j ) and min (x j ) denote respectively the largest and smallest value among all m samples for the indicator j , P ij represents the value proportion of indicator j in the sample case i to the summation value of the indicator from all cases.
Step 2: Calculate the weight and measure the comprehensive level based on entropy method.
The entropy weight method, an objective approach deriving weights from sample characteristics, mitigates expert bias, enhancing the objectivity and credibility of indicator weighting 67 . This study employs this method, determining weights through the calculation of each indicator’s information entropy, and measure the comprehensive level of the subsystem.
where m is the total number of sample cases, \({e}_{j}\) demonstrates the entropy value of the j indicator and \({\omega }_{j}\) denotes the weight of indicator j , and V represent the comprehensive level.
Step 3: Conduct a ranking of evaluation objects based on TOPSIS method.
A key limitation of the entropy method is its tendency to neglect the significance of indicators. The TOPSIS method, addressing this issue, is an ideal-solution-based ranking technique that aids in multi-objective decision-making among finite options 68 . In this approach, the study first determines positive and negative ideal solutions, measures each objective’s distance to these ideals, and subsequently ranks the subjects by the proximity of each objective to the ideal solution.
where \({ V}^{+}\) and \({V}^{-}\) respectively represent the best ideal solution and the worst ideal solution, \({D}_{i}^{+}\) and \({D}_{i}^{-}\) represent the distances from the objective to the positive and negative ideal solutions, respectively. \({C}_{i}\) indicates the closeness of the evaluation objective to the optimal solution, with \({C}_{i}\in \left[\text{0,1}\right]\) . A larger \({C}_{i}\) value suggests stronger smart and low-carbon development capabilities of the sample city.
Step 4: Analyze the correlation based on Pearson correlation method.
The Pearson correlation method is commonly used to measure the correlation coefficient between two continuous random variables, thereby assessing the degree of correlation between them 69 . In this study, based on the results from Steps 1–3, two sets of data are obtained representing the smart development level and low-carbon development level of sample cities, \(A:\left\{{A}_{1},{A}_{2},\dots ,{A}_{n}\right\}\) and \(B:\left\{{B}_{1},{B}_{2},\dots ,{B}_{n}\right\}\) . The overall means and covariance of both data sets are calculated, resulting in the Pearson correlation coefficient between the two variables.
where \({A}_{i}\) and \({B}_{i}\) respectively represent the SCP and LCL of sample cities. \(E\left(A\right)\) and \(E\left(B\right)\) are the overall means of the two data sets, \({\sigma }_{A}\text{ and }{\sigma }_{B}\) are their respective standard deviations, \(cov(A,B)\) is the covariance, and \({\rho }_{AB}\) is the Pearson correlation coefficient. When the correlation coefficient approaches 0, the relationship weakens, as it nears − 1 or + 1, the correlation strengthens.
Step 5: Analyze the coupling coordination degree based on the coupling coordination model.
The coupling coordination degree characterizes the level of interaction between different systems and serves as a scientific model for measuring the coordinated development level of multiple subsystems or elements 70 . This study has developed a model to measure the coupling coordination degree between two systems.
where C defines the coupling degree, \({f}_{1}\) and \({f}_{2}\) are the evaluation values of SCP and LCL respectively. CPD represents the coupling coordination degree. \(\alpha\) , \(\beta\) are the coefficient to be determined, indicating the importance of the systems. This study assumes that each system is equally important. Thus \(\alpha =\beta =1/2.\)
In this study, building upon the framework established by a preceding study, a classification system for the coupling coordination degree was developed. This system delineates the various types of coupling-coordinated development among SCP, LCL, LCS, LCM, LCEQ, and LCC. Current research on the division of coupling coordination degree intervals often uses an average distribution within the [0, 1] range 70 . However, due to the large sample size and the wide distribution range of coupling coordination degrees in this study, we have categorized these types into ten distinct levels based on their rank, as detailed in Table 1 .
The Chinese government has prioritized the development of smart and low-carbon cities. Since 2010, it has launched 290 smart city pilots and 81 low-carbon city pilots across various regions, reflecting different levels of development, resource allocations, and operational foundations. To maintain the scientific integrity of our study, we established stringent criteria for selecting sample cities: (i) each city must be concurrently identified as both a smart and a low-carbon city pilot, and (ii) their government agencies must have issued data on key performance indicators for these initiatives. Following these criteria, our research has ultimately selected 52 cities as samples, as detailed in Fig. 2 . It is noteworthy that these 52 typical case cities are almost all provincial capitals in China, mostly located within the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Jingjinji (Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei), and Western Triangle economic regions. Additionally, according to the “Globalization and World Cities Research Network (GaWC) World Cities Roster 2022 (GaWC2022)”, these cities are ranked within the top 200 globally. Therefore, given the scope of this research, these case cities offer significant representativeness and can serve as valuable models for promoting development in other urban areas. The data for this paper were sourced from the “China Low-Carbon Yearbook (2010–2023)”, the “China Environmental Statistics Yearbook (2010–2023)”, and low-carbon city data published by the governments of the sample cities. Additionally, this study addressed any missing data by averaging the data from adjacent years and applying exponential smoothing.
52 sample cities and their geographic locations.
The entropy weighting values between the 20 indicators of SCP and the 19 indicators of LCL are calculated by applying the data described in “ Weighting values between evaluation indicators ” section to formula ( 1 )–( 5 ), and the results are shown in Supplementary Appendix Tables A3 and A4 . Specifically, within the SCP evaluation framework, SPE and II are assigned the highest weights, while LCS and LCM are allocated the highest weights within the LCL evaluation framework. Conversely, SCS and LCC have attributed the lowest weights in their respective contexts.
Utilizing the data from “ Selection of sample cities and data collection ” section and the weighting values derived in “ Weighting values between evaluation indicators ” section, we can determine the SCP and LCL of sample cities using the TOPSIS method, as outlined in formulas ( 6 )–( 9 ). The results are illustrated in Supplementary Appendix Table A5 and Fig. 3 . In this study, the value of the closeness coefficient (C i ) is used to indicate the relative closeness of a particular sample city to the negative ideal point 71 . The negative ideal point represents the worst solution of the ideal, where the individual attribute values reach their worst in each alternative. Therefore, a larger value of closeness indicates better smart city performance or a lower carbon level of a sample city 72 . C LCL and C SCP respectively represent the low-carbon level closeness coefficient and the smart city performance closeness coefficient. In referring to Supplementary Appendix Table A5 , the best three cities of SCP are Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, whilst the worst three cities are Yan’an, Jincheng, and Xining. Furthermore, Chengdu, Qingdao, and Beijing are the best there low-carbon level performers. Whilst Jincheng, Urumqi, and Huhehaote are the three worst.
TOPSIS-based analysis of SCP with LCL in 52 sample cities.
In referencing Fig. 3 , this study considers SCP data of sample cities as the control variable and ranks them in ascending order based on TOPSIS results. We then examine changes in LCL data to ascertain the correlation between these variables, yielding two key research conclusions: on one hand, analysis of 52 sample cities demonstrates a general ascending trend in both SCP and LCL data curves. This trend suggests a positive correlation between these two parameters. On the other hand, the LCL data, in contrast to the consistent rise in SCP, exhibits notable fluctuations and wider dispersion. This indicates that the positive correlation between SCP and LCL, while present, is not markedly robust.
Correlation analysis of urban SCP and overall-LCL. This analysis employs the closeness coefficient (C i ) to assess SCP and overall-LCL in sample cities for Hypothesis 1 in Eqs. ( 10 ) and ( 11 ). The results are presented in Table 2 . Additionally, a linear regression analysis is conducted to determine the presence and magnitude of the relationship between SCP and LCL in these cities, as shown in Fig. 4 .
The scatter and regression of SCP and LCL: ( A ) SCP & Overall-LCL; ( B ) SCP & LCM; ( C ) SCP & LCS; ( D ) SCP & LCE; ( E ) SCP & LCQE; ( F ) SCP & LCC.
Considering the closeness coefficient range, correlation is categorized into five levels: very weak ( \(\left|{\rho }_{AB}\right|<0\) .1), weak ( \(0.1\le \left|{\rho }_{AB}\right|<0\) .3), moderate ( \(0.3\le \left|{\rho }_{AB}\right|<0\) .5), strong ( \(0.5\le \left|{\rho }_{AB}\right|<0\) .7), and very strong ( \(0.7\le \left|{\rho }_{AB}\right|<1.0\) ) 73 . Table 1 indicates a strong positive correlation between SCP and overall LCL. Linear regression analysis in Fig. 4 A demonstrates a significant correlation between SCP and urban LCL ( R 2 = 0.42, p < 0.001), with notable differences exist among cities, consistent with Hypothesis 1 .
Correlation analysis of SCP and each low-carbon dimension. Pearson correlation analysis effectively measures the strength of linear relationships between two variables, but it does not identify causal relationships between them. To address this limitation and explore the interaction between the two variables, this study sets and solves the closeness coefficient for each low-carbon dimension, which are low-carbon economy (C LCE ), low-carbon society (C LCS ), low-carbon environmental quality (C LCEQ ), low-carbon management (C LCM ), and low-carbon culture (C LCC ). It then calculates the correlation analysis results for SCP and each low-carbon dimension for Hypothesis 1 , as shown in Table 1 . Furthermore, the results of the linear regression analysis are presented in Fig. 4 .
In detail, strong correlations exist between SCP and LCM, LCS, and LCEQ. The correlation is moderate with LCE and weak with LCC. Furthermore, linear regression analysis shows that the links between SCP and low-carbon levels across five dimensions are significant with minimal variance. Cities with higher SCP typically show higher values in LCM ( R 2 = 0.38, p = 0.000), LCS ( R 2 = 0.35, p = 0.000), and LCE ( R 2 = 0.32, p = 0.000) as depicted in Fig. 4 B–D. However, this trend is less pronounced in LCEQ ( R 2 = 0.17, p = 0.000) and LCC ( R 2 = 0.06, p = 0.001), which exhibit greater dispersion as shown in Fig. 4 E,F. The lower R 2 values for LCEQ and LCC compared to other dimensions suggest a greater influence of factors not included in the model. Furthermore, to ensure the credibility and reliability of the research findings, this study conducted a sensitivity analysis by identifying and removing outliers from the sample dataset using the Z-score method, in addition to the previously mentioned Pearson correlation analysis. The Pearson correlation coefficient for the original dataset of city SCP and LCL is 0.65, with a significant P-value. After removing the outliers, the Pearson correlation coefficient is 0.61, and the P-value remained significant. Therefore, the correlation between city SCP and LCL proposed in Research Hypothesis 1 is robust.
The degree of coupling coordination comprehensively considers multiple aspects of urban complex systems, including economic, social, and environmental dimensions. By systematically evaluating the coordinated development level of urban SCP and LCL, this approach enables the analysis of the coupling and coordination relationships between SCP and LCL, as well as among various subsystems such as LCM, LCS, LCE, LCEQ, and LCC. This reveals the dynamic interactions and causality between SCP and LCL within urban complex systems. The coupling coordination degrees of SCP and LCL, along with their subsystems, in 52 typical smart and low-carbon pilot cities in China, are illustrated in Fig. 5 .
Coupled coordination degree of SCP and LCL, LCS, LCEQ, LCE, LCM, LCC.
Characteristics of objective changes in the coupled coordination degree between SCP and LCL. Based on the coupling coordination model and Eqs. ( 12 ) to ( 14 ), the coupling coordination degree of the urban complex system in SCP and LCL regions is calculated for Hypothesis 1 , as illustrated in Fig. 5 .
From the holistic perspective of urban complex systems, as the level of urban SCP continuously improves, the coupling coordination degree between SCP and LCL among 52 pilot cities in China shows an upward trend. This indicates that as the functional indices of urban SCP and LCL both strengthen, their interaction and coordination also enhance. Among these, Jincheng has the lowest coupled coordination degree at 0.5201, while Beijing boasts the highest at 0.8622. Within the 52 pilot cities, 5.78% exhibit a barely coupling coordination level, 51.93% display a primary coupling coordination level, 25% achieve an intermediate coupling coordination level, and 17.31% reach a good coupling coordination level. Moreover, the average coupling coordination degree of the 52 pilot cities is 0.598, suggesting that the SCP and LCL of the pilot cities can achieve coupled coordinated development.
Characteristics of objective changes in the coupled coordination degree among SCP, LCM, LCS, LCE, LCEQ, and LCC for Hypothesis 1 are illustrated in Fig. 5 .
From the perspective of urban subsystems, the coupling coordination degrees of LCS & SCP, LCE & SCP, and LCM & SCP all exhibit characteristics of steady fluctuations with an upward trend, while the coupling coordination degree of LCC & SCP shows greater volatility in its upward trend. The coupling coordination degree of LCEQ & SCP demonstrates a trend of initially rising and then declining. Furthermore, the average values of the coupling coordination degrees for LCS & SCP, LCE & SCP, LCM & SCP, LCEQ & SCP, and LCC & SCP are 0.478, 0.761, 0.779, 0.710, and 0.485, respectively. Among these, the pilot cities’ subsystems of LCE, LCM, and LCEQ with SCP exhibit an intermediate level of coupling coordination, while the coupling coordination degrees of LCS and LCC with SCP are on the verge of a dysfunctional recession. This indicates that the causal relationships between urban SCP and the subsystems of urban LCM, LCS, LCE, LCEQ, and LCC vary. Overall, Hypothesis 1 holds true both from the perspective of the city's overall system and from the perspective of its various subsystems.
Relationship between scp and lcl of different cities.
Considering the evaluation results of the urban SCP and LCL, four grades of the overall points can be classified, namely, excellent (0.7–1.0), average (0.5–0.7), below average (0.4–0.5), and poor (0–0.4). Subsequently, the sample cities in Supplementary Appendix Table A5 were classified based on these gradations. In the sample, cities with excellent SCP constitute 9.62%, about double the proportion with excellent LCL. Cities with average SCP account for 48.08%, whereas those at average LCL represent only 26.92%. Notably, cities with poor LCL comprise 26.92%, nearly triple the rate of those with poor SCP. The findings suggest that China’s SCP currently outperforms its low-carbon city initiatives, largely attributable to the rapid advancement of the Internet and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in recent years. What’s more, Fig. 4 illustrates that urban SCP significantly positively influences the urban LCL, though substantial variations exist among different cities. The relevant types can be summarized into the following four categories.
Quadrant I-high SCP and high LCL, including only six cities (Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Ningbo, Xiamen, and Qingdao). These cities are not only among China’s earliest smart city pilots but also recent focus areas for the government’s “Carbon Peak Pioneer Cities” initiative. By actively exploring innovative models, systems, and technologies for smart and low-carbon co-development, these cities provide valuable practical experiences for others. For instance, Shenzhen has developed a multi-level, multi-component greenhouse gas monitoring network and technology system for “carbon flux, carbon concentration, carbon emissions”, while Ningbo has constructed a “smart zero-carbon” comprehensive demonstration port area.
Quadrant II-poor SCP and poor LCL, numerous cities in Fig. 4 A, such as Jincheng, Lhasa, and Urumqi, exhibit poor SCP and LCL. Despite China having the most smart and low-carbon city pilots globally, its development level in these areas still lags significantly behind typical developed countries. While China’s infrastructure like networking and computing power has reached a certain scale, issues persist with insufficient integration and intensity in infrastructure construction and operation, as well as problems with aging infrastructure and low levels of intelligence. Furthermore, although China’s low-carbon pilot cities have made positive progress in promoting low-carbon development, most still have incomplete carbon emission statistical systems and inadequate operational mechanisms, leading to generally poor overall low-carbon development levels.
Quadrant III-high LCL but poor SCP, such as Kunming, Xining, and Guiyang. These cities possess resources conducive to low-carbon development, such as Kunming and Guiyang with their rich forest carbon sinks, and Xining with abundant clean energy sources like solar and wind power. However, they are mostly situated in China’s central and southwest areas with underdeveloped physical and economic conditions. Leveraging their abundant low-carbon resources, and utilizing big data and IoT technology, achieving sustainable green economic growth through carbon credits and trading markets, as well as green finance, represents a significant future development direction for these cities.
Quadrant IV-high SCP but poor LCL, including Suzhou, and Jinhua Zhongshan, decoupling economic development from carbon emissions presents a significant development challenge for these cities. Specifically, for Suzhou, one of the world’s largest industrial cities, the main challenge is achieving decarburization in the energy sector and transitioning high-emission manufacturing industries to low-carbon alternatives.
What’s more, as illustrated in Fig. 5 , the degree of interaction between SCP and LCL across the 52 pilot cities in China positively impacts the balanced and comprehensive performance of these cities. This, in turn, fosters the coordinated development of urban systems as a whole. Moreover, the continual increase in the coupled coordination degree between SCP and LCL with the enhancement of SCP in pilot cities indicates that smart city construction contributes to urban low-carbon development. Future urban development in China should fully leverage the industrial upgrading effect, carbon sequestration effect, and energy utilization effect of smart city construction. However, the increasing slope of the SCP & LCL coupled coordination degree curve in Fig. 5 suggests significant regional differences in the level of SCP & LCL coupled coordination development across Chinese cities. Smart city construction has a more pronounced decarburization effect in central and western cities, southern cities, non-environmentally focused cities, and resource-based cities, with cities in the northwest showing notably poorer levels of SCP & LCL coupled coordination development. This serves as a warning for future urban development in China.
The relationship between urban SCP and LCL across five dimensions is illustrated in Fig. 4 B–F. There is a strong positive correlation between SCP and LCM, LCS, and LCE, while a moderate correlation is observed with LCEQ, and a weak correlation with LCC. Furthermore, the degree of coupling coordination between SCP and subsystems such as LCS, LCEQ, LCE, LCM, and LCC is examined in Fig. 5 . The results of the coupling coordination vividly illustrate the synergistic interactions and developmental harmony between urban SCP and various systems.
Among these, the coupling coordination degree curve fluctuation between SCP & LCM is stable, situated at an intermediate coupling coordination level, indicating the dominant role of the Chinese government in the construction of smart cities and low-carbon cities, as well as the effectiveness of policy implementation. However, this also suggests that in promoting urban smart and low-carbon construction, China faces the risk of adopting “one-size-fits-all” mandatory policies, neglecting to advance construction in phases with emphasis, tailored to the city's resource endowment and economic development status. The coupling coordination degree curve changes between SCP&LCE and SCP&LCL show the highest degree of fit, indicating that low-carbon economic development brought about by digital empowerment and upgrading of the urban industrial structure is a key driving factor for promoting the coupled coordination development of urban smart and low-carbon initiatives. Transforming traditional industrial structures and pursuing low-carbon upgrades of the economic structure present challenges for urban development in China today. The coupled coordination degree of SCP & LCS is on the verge of a dysfunctional recession, highlighting the imbalance in the development between China's SCP and LCS, especially in terms of new infrastructure construction, such as smart transportation and logistics facilities, smart energy systems, smart environmental resources facilities, etc. The current construction of new infrastructure in China is far from meeting the living needs of the broad masses of people.
It is noteworthy that with the continuous improvement of the SCP in sample cities, the coupling performance degree between SCP and LCEQ exhibits two phases: an initial stage of synergistic enhancement followed by a stage of diminished synergy. In the early phase of synergistic development, the SCP and LCEQ systems of cities, driven by shared goals of sustainable urban development, strategy adjustments, resource sharing, and technological progress, facilitated effective collaboration and integration between systems. However, upon reaching a certain stage, intensified resource competition, declining management efficiency, and environmental changes led to internal system fatigue, resulting in weakened synergy. This indicates that once the technological effects generated by smart city construction reach a certain level, it becomes crucial to enhance the city's capacity for autonomous innovation. Addressing the bottleneck issues of core technologies and transforming the development mode of smart low-carbon technology from “imitative innovation” represent significant breakthroughs for further promoting the coupled coordination of SCP and LCEQ in China’s future.
Moreover, as the SCP of sample cities continuously improves, the coupled coordination degree between SCP and LCC shows two phases: initial stable fluctuations and subsequent rapid growth. The turning point in the curve change occurs at a coupled coordination degree of 0.6, denoted as the primary coupling coordination point. Among these, the low-carbon awareness rate of urban residents, as a key indicator of LCC, shows that the majority of urban residents in China are still in the cognitive awakening stage regarding low-carbon consciousness. At this stage, residents begin to recognize the severity of climate change and environmental degradation, along with the importance of smart low-carbon lifestyles in mitigating these issues. The government continuously promotes this awareness through media reports, educational activities, official propaganda, and community initiatives. As residents gain a deeper understanding of the issues, their attitudes shift from initial indifference or skepticism to a stronger identification with and support for the values and concepts of smart low-carbon living. This shift encourages residents to experiment with new smart low-carbon lifestyles, gradually finding suitable smart low-carbon behavioral patterns that become habitual. Ultimately, when smart low-carbon lifestyles are fully internalized as part of residents’ values, they not only practice smart low-carbon living at the individual level but also actively participate in promoting society’s smart low-carbon construction. Therefore, this study posits that the emergence of the coupled coordination degree turning point between SCP and LCC is not only a process of individual behavioral change but also a reflection of social and cultural transformation. This process is time-consuming and influenced by multiple factors, including policy guidance, economic incentives, educational dissemination, and the social atmosphere.
Low-carbon and smartness are vital features of modern, sustainable urban development and key supports for it. This study posits that urban low-carbon and smart development should not be disjointed but rather synergistic and complementary. To better achieve sustainable urban development goals, a model should be constructed with “low-carbon” as the cornerstone of sustainable development and “smartness” as the technological assurance for low-carbon growth. Specifically, this study proposes the “urban smart low-carbon co-development model”, which entails a deep integration of intelligent technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT) and big data with urban construction, governance services, and economic development. This model leverages digitalization to facilitate decarburization, thereby achieving urban sustainable development goals such as energy-efficient and green urbanization, ecological and livable environments, and streamlined governance services.
Furthermore, to better coordinate smart development with low-carbon city construction, enhance low-carbon city building through digitalization, and explore exemplary practices and models of smart low-carbon city construction, this study finds it necessary to establish an evaluation system for smart and low-carbon urban co-development. Therefore, based on the aforementioned urban SCP and LCL evaluation indicator system, this study initially conducted a literature review of past research, selecting 5 primary indicators and 20 secondary indicators from 48 articles to evaluate the degree of coupling coordination development between urban SCP and LCL. Subsequently, the Delphi method was employed to finalize the list of evaluation indicators, with 10 experts from various regions and diverse backgrounds in China refining the list and determining the weights of each indicator, as shown in Supplementary Appendix Table A6 . The final Smart Low-Carbon City Coupling Coordination Development Evaluation Indicator System, as presented in Table 3 , comprises 5 primary indicators and 18 secondary indicators. This evaluation system aims to emphasize the utilization of next-generation information technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and blockchain to expand urban green ecological spaces, strengthen ecological environment governance, and enhance the level of intelligent urban governance, meeting the development needs of smart low-carbon cities.
The policy implications from the analysis results suggest that actions should be taken by government departments in China to reduce the uneven performance between urban SCP and LCL across various cities. These actions include, for example: Firstly, guiding the innovative development of urban SCP and LCL through policies, such as enhancing government digital services and administrative platforms, continuously promoting the development of emerging industries and the upgrading of traditional industries, and actively promoting green energy technologies. Secondly, categorizing and advancing the coordinated development of smart and low-carbon cities—comprehensive development should be pursued simultaneously in large cities in eastern and central China, while in smaller cities in western China, priorities should include enhancing urban innovation capabilities and improving infrastructure to lay a solid foundation for the coupled coordination of urban SCP and LCL. Thirdly, constructing a multi-stakeholder governance system to maximize the leading role of the government, the main role of enterprises, and the active participation of residents. By fostering a positive social atmosphere and cultural attributes, this will enhance the sense of participation and achievement among different social groups, creating a sustainable development model for urban SCP and LCL coordination. Lastly, emphasizing the development of SCP and LCL coordination in county-level cities is crucial. While large Chinese cities have already begun to form a pattern of coordinated SCP and LCL development, county-level cities, though with weaker infrastructures, possess tremendous potential. Focusing on low-carbon production, circulation, and consumption, and strengthening smart and low-carbon constructions in county-level cities will be a vital task for future urban development in China.
The global urbanization process brings opportunities for economic growth and social development, but also presents a series of challenges, such as environmental pressures and resource constraints 3 . The evaluation of urban SCP and LCL creates a link between the policy-making in urban resources environment management and the objectives of sustainable development goals (SDGs 11.4, 11.6, and 11.b) at the city level 74 . Currently, there is no unified consensus on the coupling coordination development between urban SCP and LCL. This study proposes a method combining qualitative and quantitative analysis from the perspective of urban complex systems to analyze the coupling coordination relationship between SCP and LCL. This new method clearly interprets a strong positive correlation between urban smart performance and the overall low-carbon level. Specifically, there are strong correlations between SMC and LCM, LCS, and LCE, with a moderate correlation to LCQE and a weak correlation with LCC. Several innovative insights for this method are highlighted: (i) sustainable development based on SCP and LCL assessment; (ii) emphasizing the “people-centric” concept in urban development; (iii) analyzing from the perspective of urban complex systems.
This study selected 52 typical smart and low-carbon pilot cities in China as sample cities to analyze the coupled coordination relationship between urban SCP and LCL. And the main findings from this analysis can be summarized as follows: (i) smart city initiatives outperform low-carbon city development, with notable differences in SCP and LCL effectiveness across eastern, central, and non-resource-based cities versus western, peripheral, and resource-dependent ones in China. (ii) A strong positive link between urban SCP and low-carbon levels, especially between SCP and LCM, LCS, and LCE, with moderate and weak correlations to LCEQ and LCC, respectively. (iii) An increasing urban SCP levels enhance the coupling coordination within the urban SCP and LCL system. SCP & LCE, SCP & LCM, and SCP & LCS subsystems align well with the overall system, driving the coupled coordination of urban SCP and LCL. In contrast, SCP & LCC and SCP & LCEQ have lesser alignment, affected by factors like technology, policy, economic incentives, education, and societal attitudes. Based on the evaluation results, this study posits that the development of urban low-carbon and smart initiatives should not be disjointed but rather synergistic and complementary. This study constructs an evaluation indicator system for the co-development of smart low-carbon cities aimed at better guiding the future coupling coordination development of smart and low-carbon cities.
The novelty of this study not only addresses the practical dilemma of obtaining comprehensive, accurate, and timely urban-level carbon emission data, a challenge due to existing measurement and estimation technologies being unable to capture all types of carbon emissions, but also assesses the urban SCP and LCL. Simultaneously, by combining qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, it fills the research gap on the nature of the coupled coordination relationship between urban SCP and LCL. Moreover, from the perspective of urban complex systems, this study dissects the urban low-carbon level into LCC, LC, LCE, LCEQ, and LCS, exploring their respective coupled coordination relationships with SCP. This clarifies the impact mechanism between SCP and LCL, providing a theoretical basis for smart low-carbon city co-development. The limitations of the study are also appreciated. Firstly, the study only selected a sample of cities in China, and the limited number of samples may not fully substantiate the research conclusions. Secondly, the indicator system constructed by this study is still not perfect, leading to certain inaccuracies in the evaluation results. In this regard, future studies are recommended to conduct a more comprehensive comparison analysis on the coupled coordination relationship between SCP and LCL at city, regional, and national levels, which would be beneficial in better guiding the practice of urban sustainability.
All data generated or analysed during this study are included in this published article [and its Supplementary Information files].
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Xiongwei Zhu, Dezhi Li, Shenghua Zhou & Lugang Yu
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Zhu, X., Li, D., Zhou, S. et al. Evaluating coupling coordination between urban smart performance and low-carbon level in China’s pilot cities with mixed methods. Sci Rep 14 , 20461 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-68417-4
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Quantitative data is information about quantities, and therefore numbers, and qualitative data is descriptive, and regards phenomenon which can be observed but not measured, such as language. Quantitative research collects numerical data and analyzes it using statistical methods. The aim is to produce objective, empirical data that can be ...
When collecting and analyzing data, quantitative research deals with numbers and statistics, while qualitative research deals with words and meanings. Both are important for gaining different kinds of knowledge. Quantitative research. Quantitative research is expressed in numbers and graphs. It is used to test or confirm theories and assumptions.
Unlike in quantitative research where hypotheses are usually developed to be tested, qualitative research can lead to both hypothesis-testing and hypothesis-generating outcomes.2 When studies require both quantitative and qualitative research questions, this suggests an integrative process between both research methods wherein a single mixed ...
At a Glance. Psychologists rely on quantitative and quantitative research to better understand human thought and behavior. Qualitative research involves collecting and evaluating non-numerical data in order to understand concepts or subjective opinions. Quantitative research involves collecting and evaluating numerical data.
Taking a look at behavioral observation, another common method used for both qualitative and quantitative research, qualitative data may consider a variety of factors, such as facial expressions, verbal responses, and body language. ... For example, if a project is in its early stages and requires more research to find a testable hypothesis ...
5.1 Quantitative Research Methods. Quantitative research uses methods that seek to explain phenomena by collecting numerical data, which are then analysed mathematically, typically by statistics. With quantitative approaches, the data produced are always numerical; if there are no numbers, then the methods are not quantitative.
The choice of methods varies by discipline, by the kind of phenomenon being studied and the data being used to study it, by the technology available, and more. This guide is an introduction, but if you don't see what you need here, always contact your subject librarian, and/or take a look to see if there's a library research guide that will ...
When collecting and analysing data, quantitative research deals with numbers and statistics, while qualitative research deals with words and meanings. Both are important for gaining different kinds of knowledge. Quantitative research. Quantitative research is expressed in numbers and graphs. It is used to test or confirm theories and assumptions.
Quantitative research is " explaining phenomena by collecting numerical data that are analysed using mathematically based methods (in particular statistics). "*. Qualitative research seeks to answer questions about why and how people behave in the way that they do. It provides in-depth information about human behaviour.
Qualitative research involves collecting and analyzing non-numerical data (e.g., text, video, or audio) to understand concepts, opinions, or experiences. It can be used to gather in-depth insights into a problem or generate new ideas for research. Qualitative research is the opposite of quantitative research, which involves collecting and ...
For example, qualitative research usually relies on interviews, observations, and textual analysis to explore subjective experiences and diverse perspectives. While quantitative data collection methods include surveys, experiments, and statistical analysis to gather and analyze numerical data. The differences between the two research approaches ...
Quantitative and qualitative methods are the engine behind evidence-based outcomes. For decades, one of the popular phenomena that troubled young researchers is that which appropriate research ...
While quantitative research essentially deals with the collection of numerical data to address a research problem and involves rigorous statistical analysis of the data to provide meaningful results, qualitative research deals with the collection of non-numerical data (e.g., words) to explore the experiences and knowledge of living from the point of view of people living in the environment.
Qualitative research gains a better understanding of the reason something happens. For example, researchers may comb through feedback and statements to ascertain the reasoning behind certain behaviors or actions. On the other hand, quantitative research focuses on the numerical analysis of data, which may show cause-and-effect relationships.
It explores the "how" and "why" of human behavior, using methods like interviews, observations, and content analysis. In contrast, quantitative research is numeric and objective, aiming to quantify variables and analyze statistical relationships. It addresses the "when" and "where," utilizing tools like surveys, experiments, and ...
SAGE Research Methods is the essential online resource for anyone doing research or learning how to do research. With more than 800 books, reference works, and journal articles from SAGE's world-renowned research methods list, SAGE Research Methods provides information on writing a research question, conducting a literature review, choosing a research method, collecting and analyzing data ...
How to conduct qualitative research? Given that qualitative research is characterised by flexibility, openness and responsivity to context, the steps of data collection and analysis are not as separate and consecutive as they tend to be in quantitative research [13, 14].As Fossey puts it: "sampling, data collection, analysis and interpretation are related to each other in a cyclical ...
The quantitative research method uses data, which are measures of values and counts and are often described using statistical methods which in turn aids the researcher to draw inferences. Qualitative research incorporates the recording, interpreting, and analyzing of non-numeric data with an attempt to uncover the deeper meanings of human ...
Revised on June 22, 2023. Quantitative research is the process of collecting and analyzing numerical data. It can be used to find patterns and averages, make predictions, test causal relationships, and generalize results to wider populations. Quantitative research is the opposite of qualitative research, which involves collecting and analyzing ...
Quantitative research is useful when working to confirm or test a theory or hypothesis [3]. However, qualitative research is preferable when attempting to depict and comprehend concepts such as experiences, perceptions, and thoughts [6]. When collecting data, a qualitative, quantitative, or mixed-method approach can be utilized [9]. This choice ...
Interpretative approaches are usually associated with qualitative social science but are equally applicable to the analysis of quantitative data. In interpretive quantitative research, statistics ...
Describe the philosophical and interpretive foundations of qualitative research. Differentiate qualitative claims, methods, and analyses from quantitative claims, methods, and analyses. Explore, identify, and evaluate core qualitative traditions (phenomenology, narrative inquiry, constructivist grounded theory, ethnographic inquiry, and case ...
There is considerable literature showing the complexity, connectivity and blurring of 'qualitative' and 'quantitative' methods in research. Yet these concepts are often represented in a binary way as independent dichotomous categories. This is evident in many key textbooks which are used in research methods courses to guide students and newer researchers in their research training. This paper ...
Qualitative research is a type of research that explores and provides deeper insights into real-world problems.[1] Instead of collecting numerical data points or intervening or introducing treatments just like in quantitative research, qualitative research helps generate hypothenar to further investigate and understand quantitative data. Qualitative research gathers participants' experiences ...
Quantitative Research: A Data-Driven Approach. Unlike qualitative methods, quantitative research relies primarily on the collection and analysis of objective, measurable numerical data. This structured empirical evidence is then manipulated using statistical, graphical and mathematical techniques to derive patterns, trends and conclusions. ...
Qualitative research is susceptible to biases such as the Hawthorne effect (observer influence), observer bias, recall bias, social desirability bias. The Differences Between Quantitative vs. Qualitative Research Methods. Quantitative and qualitative approaches differ in their data collection methods, analysis procedures, and insights gained.
Research Approach A research approach can be either qualitative, quantitative or mixed approach, so they differ based on the data used to conduct a research. Teacher A used quantitative It is very essential to note that Teacher A used two tables a Likert Scales and results analysis and those two tables are used in a quantitative research approach.
While mixed methods research is increasingly used to examine determinants of unwarranted variability in healthcare delivery and outcomes, novel integrative approaches are required to meet the needs of mixed methods healthcare delivery research. ... Enhancing Qualitative and Quantitative Data Linkages in Complex Mixed Methods Designs ...
Qualitative methods of data collection may include, for example, interviews, focus groups, observations and analysis of documents. ... Qualitative and quantitative research is collected and analysed at the same time in a parallel or complementary manner. Integration can occur at three points: a. Data-based convergent synthesis design.
Simultaneously, by combining qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, it fills the research gap on the nature of the coupled coordination relationship between urban SCP and LCL.