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Improving The Prospects For Free, Fair And Credible Elections In Nigeria Through Constitutional Alteration By Otive Igbuzor

There is no doubt that elections play a vital role in a system of representative democracy. They are the primary mechanism with which to implement the principle of popular sovereignty. Ultimate authority rests with the people and the people delegate this authority to their elected representatives through the electoral process.

PRESENTATION AT A SYMPOSIUM ORGANISED BY NILDS ON 10TH NOVEMBER, 2020

INTRODUCTION

It has been recognized all over the world that democracy is the best form of government. Democracy is so important in the world today that it has become the driving force of development making many scholars to draw a nexus between  democracy and development. Although different people put emphasis on different issues which they consider to be crucial to democracy, majority of people agree that liberal democracy contains some basic principles which include citizen participation; equality; political tolerance; accountability; transparency; regular, free and fair elections, economic freedom; control of the abuse of power; bill of rights; accepting the result of elections; human rights; multi-party system and the rule of law. However, it has been recognized that liberal democracy is facing a crisis of legitimacy and declining confidence in political leaders and institutions necessitating the need for democratic renewal through increasing citizen participation.

There is no doubt that elections play a vital role in a system of representative democracy.  They are the primary mechanism with which to implement the principle of popular sovereignty.  Ultimate authority rests with the people and the people delegate this authority to their elected representatives through the electoral process.  It is through the exercise of franchise or the right to vote that citizens can perform this role. Unfortunately, from the history of elections in Nigeria from the colonial era till date, there are challenges for free, fair and credible elections and citizens are losing the right to vote or the vote counting towards the final electoral outcome. In many instances, candidates were declared winners without voting through judicialization of the electoral process. In other cases, people who did not stand for elections were declared winners. In the particular case of the 2007 elections in Nigeria, the loss of franchise by citizens was very widespread leading to what has been termed “Direct capture of the peoples’ mandate.” 

In this paper, we examine the prospects for free, fair and credible elections in Nigeria through constitutional alteration. But first, we look at the concepts of constitution,  constitutionalism and constitution making. 

CONSTITUTION, CONSTITUTIONALISM AND CONSTITUTION MAKING

The concepts of constitution, constitutionalism and constitution making have attracted the attention of scholars over the years. Constitution has been defined in various ways. A Constitution has been defined as the embodiment of all the political, economic, social, cultural, religious and even historical forces conditioning the perception of a people at any given time and powerful enough to be isolated and accepted as a guide for future action. The constitution is a collection of norms and standards according to which a country is governed. A Constitution has also been defined as the totality of the rules and regulations, both legal and non-legal, which ordain, order, regulate and sustain the government of a given country. Others define a constitution as a set of principles, fundamental rules and practices of government, written and unwritten, which establishes the major organs of government, allocates to them their powers, defines the rights of the citizens and the relations between them and the state. Another popular definition is that which defines a constitution as the basic or fundamental law of the land, which contains the rules, conventions, and other practices by which a society governs itself. According to Justice Albie Sachs of South Africa, a constitution is the autobiography of a nation. A constitution has also been described as a contract, which describes the conditions under which the peoples of a nation co-exist. 

From the above definitions, it is clear that a constitution may contain rules about how those who govern are to be selected or changed, how they are to behave in office and the relationship between the organs of government.  It also shows the relationship between the government and the citizens and even amongst the citizens. The importance of constitution in a country cannot be overemphasized. As one scholar once noted, the good or bad fortune of a nation depends on three factors: Its constitution, the way the constitution is made to work and the respect it inspires.

Like constitution, constitutionalism has been defined in different ways by different people. According to Ojwang, constitutionalism means government that is subject to restraint, in the interest of the ordinary members of the community; government that is not arbitrary or totalitarian. But to S. A. De Smith, constitutionalism is:

the principle that the exercise of political power shall be bound by rules, rules which determine the validity of legislative and executive action by prescribing the procedure according to which it must be performed or by delimiting its permissible content …Constitutionalism becomes a living reality to the extent that these rules curb the arbitrariness of discretion and are in fact observed by the wielders of political power, and to the extent that within the forbidden zones upon which authority may not trespass, there is significant room for the enjoyment of individual liberty. 

Constitutionalism has also been defined as adherence to the letter and spirit of the constitution.  It upholds the supremacy of the constitution and requires that government officials must obey and operate within the framework of the law. It is important that a country should not only have a good constitution, but that the principles of constitutionalism are adhered to. As Okoth-Ogendo has argued, in Africa, there appears to be a commitment to the idea of constitution, yet at the same time, there is a rejection of the classical notion of constitutionalism. In any case, constitutionalism has to be understood in the context of power relations.  Scholars have argued that the pursuit of constitutionalism goes beyond mere constitutional formalities to embrace such aspects as the acceptance, especially by the leaders to be bound by both the letter and spirit of the constitution; consistent constitutional practices especially with regards to the acquisition and retention of state power, and constitutional change; constitutional stability; as well as the substance of respect of human rights and the rule of law- and generally building a constitutional ethic or culture. 

It has been posited that there is a new concept of constitutionalism, which should rest on the degree of accountability/responsiveness of the State and the and collective rights and freedoms that it guarantees.  It has been argued that this new constitutionalism has become an integral part of the African political reform process. According to Ihonvbere, this new trend in constitutionalism has been encouraged by several factors. First, there is an increased support for democratisation and civil society by sub-regional, continental and international organizations, such as the Economic Community of West African states (ECOWAS), the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) now African Union(AU), the Commonwealth, the European Union (EU) and the United Nations. Second, there is a new acknowledgement all over Africa of the salience of pluralism and its centrality to the democratic process. Third, new coalitions and networks are emerging all over Africa as platforms for training new leaders, demystifying dictatorships, and articulating alternative agendas for democratisation. Furthermore, at the end of the cold war, there are no more superpowers that use all the resources at their disposal to maintain unpopular and illegitimate regimes. Moreover, there appears to be a consensus all over the world that military regimes are not only aberration and unacceptable but must be resisted. About four decades ago, the Assembly of the Heads of State of the OAU decided that they would not admit military rulers in their meetings. The Centre for Democracy and Development aptly captured the new trend when it stated:

“At every level on the continent, the idea has taken root that the Leviathans of Africa must     no longer function as “virtual democracies” but must be refashioned to reflect the realities of their multifaceted societies. This has been reflected in the constitutional Conferences in Benin, Mali, Togo, Niger, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Cameroun in the early 1990s, in the successful constitutional arrangement of South Africa, and in the process-based constitutional commissions in Uganda and Eritrea……..Today, the struggle for constitutional reform in Kenya, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Nigeria typifies the second liberation/independence struggle in the continent. The struggle has been led predominantly by civil society in Africa, since the political parties have proved either incapable or unwilling to push for constitutions that will promote just and equitable societies, being instead distracted by a chance to exercise power” 

Constitution making, according to Issa Shivji, is a process of constructing a political consensus around constitutionalism. But according to Selassie, it is a process that brings people and their governments together to shape their future political life. It is a meeting point between the past, the present and the future. 

A peoples’ constitution is a constitution made by the people. The people not only participate in the process of making a peoples’ constitution, but the content reflects the history, wishes and aspirations of the people. There is no doubt that the African people are determined to produce popular constitutions. As Abdul Raheem has pointed out, there are determined political groups, civil society organizations and other stakeholders who have placed constitutional change firmly on the agenda. 

PROSPECTS FOR FREE, FAIR AND CREDIBLE ELECTIONS

Election has been defined as the process of choice agreed upon by a group of people. In other words, election is the process of voting or exercising franchise. Election is crucial because it gives the procedure that allows members of an organization or community to choose representatives who will hold positions of authority within it. In any democratic system, it is crucial that elections be free and fair. Mackenzie (1967) identified four conditions for the conduct of a free and fair election viz.:

An independent judiciary to interpret the electoral laws.

An honest, competent non-partisan electoral body to manage the elections.

A developed system of political parties.

A general acceptance by the political community of the rules of the game.

Another scholar Dundas (1994) argued that the assessment of an election as to whether it is free and fair or not can be done by answering the following questions:

Is the legal framework adequate to ensure that the organization of free and fair multi-party elections be achieved in a given situation?

Has the potential to contribute to the holding of free and fair multi-party elections been reflected in the provisions of the constitution and those of electoral laws?

Have the courts been given the fullest possible role in assisting aggrieved persons who complain about failures in the procedures of major election processes?

Are the election safeguards satisfactorily balanced with the facilitation measures in place and aimed at delivering high quality election services at cost effective levels?

Over the years, scholars have identified electoral standards which contribute to uniformity, reliability, consistency, accuracy and overall professionalism in elections. These standards include:

Constitutional provision that provide the foundation for the key elements of electoral framework including electoral rights and the basic principles of the electoral system.

Electoral law that guides the conduct of the elections including the powers of the electoral management bodies and governmental bodies.

The election administration must demonstrate respect for the law; be non-partisan and neutral; transparent; accurate, professional and competent and must be designed to serve the voters.

The electoral system should guarantee political inclusiveness, representation, frequency of elections and fairness in the organization of electoral units.

The organization of electoral units is done in such a way as to achieve the objective of according equal weight to each vote to the greatest degree possible to ensure effective representation. 

The legal framework should ensure that all eligible citizens are guaranteed the right to universal and equal suffrage as well as the right to contest elections without any discrimination. 

The electoral management bodies are established and operate in a manner that ensures the independent and impartial administration of elections.

Voters registers are maintained in a manner that is transparent and accurate and protects the rights of qualified citizens to register, and prevents the unlawful or fraudulent registration or removal of persons.

All political parties and candidates are able to compete in elections on the basis of equitable treatment.

The electoral campaigns are organized in such a way that each political party and candidate enjoys the right to freedom of expression and freedom of association, and has access to the electorate, and that all stakeholders in the election process have an equal chance of success.

All political parties and candidates have access to the media owned or controlled by the state and those privately owned and that no unreasonable limitations are placed on the right of political parties and candidates to free expression during election campaigns.

All political parties and candidates are equitably treated by legal provisions governing campaign finances and expenditures.

Polling stations are accessible and that there is accurate recording of ballots and that the secrecy of the ballot is guaranteed.

All votes are counted and tabulated accurately, equally, fairly and transparently.

There are representatives of parties and candidates contesting the election to observe all voting processes.

To ensure transparency and to increase credibility, there should be provision for election observers to observe all stages of election process, and

There should be compliance with and enforcement of the electoral law. 

Franchise is very important because it is through franchise that the people operationalise the concept of sovereignty in a liberal democrcay. As clearly stated in section 14(2a) of the 1999 Constitution, it is hereby, accordingly, declared that sovereignty belongs to the people of Nigeria from whom government through this constitution derives all its power and authority.  Non-adherence to electoral standards brings challenges to free, fair and credible elections and leads to the loss of franchise and eventually the loss of the peoples’ sovereignty. 

We have always argued that for there to be free, fair and credible elections all stakeholders in the election process must perform their roles.

For the election management body to conduct credible, free and fair elections, we expect:

INEC to live up to its vision, mission and principles

A competent INEC with sound management system and institutional capacity to carry out its mandate. 

Financial and institutional independence of INEC

Effective information management by INEC

Control and oversight mechanism over staff, ad hoc staff and volunteers

Transparency and accountability of INEC which can be enhanced by regular reporting to the public through the media; regular meeting with political parties, CSOs and development partners; and allowing credible CSOs and the press to observe and monitor the electoral process. 

INEC to abide by the provisions of the electoral law in the conduct of the elections  and collate results in a transparent and verifiable manner. 

INEC to carry out monitoring of political parties to ensure that they comply with the electoral law and INEC guidelines and sanction political parties and candidates that breach the rules without fear or favour

Accredit reputable and credible CSOs as election observers at least one month before the election date to enable the organisations plan carefully, train the observers and deploy them appropriately.

To contribute to the conduct of credible, free and fair elections, we expect political parties to:

Perform their function of political education and recruitment

Comply with the electoral Act  and INEC rules

Observe internal party democracy in line with electoral act and party constitution. 

Abide by the electoral law provision on party congresses and conventions for the nomination of candidates.

Show respect to the voters and campaign for votes based on programmes and issues and desist from the use of violence and thuggery during the elections.

To contribute to credible, free and fair elections, we expect the media to:

Refrain from selective reporting or reporting out of context, exaggeration or outright falsehood

 Be balanced in its coverage of the electoral process and not give undue advantage to any political party or aspirant/candidate. 

The security agencies can make a difference in the outcome of elections. It is therefore important that security officers display the highest level of integrity, neutrality, professionalism and sense of duty. The protection of human life, voters, electoral materials and officials and the preservation of lawful and orderly electoral processes are necessary for credible, free and fair elections. Without adequate security, there cannot be credible, free and fair elections. In the past, the security agencies have  been accused of being used by politicians to intimidate opponents and to rig elections. 

The primary role of security operatives including the Police in elections is to protect the integrity of the electoral processes and of the participants, institutions and outcome through:

Safeguarding the security of lives and property of citizens during the electoral process.

Ensuring the safety of electoral officers before, during and after elections.

Providing security for candidates during rallies, congresses, conventions, electioneering campaigns and elections.

Ensuring and preserving a free, fair, safe and lawful atmosphere for campaigning by all parties and candidates without discrimination.

Maintaining peaceful conditions, law and order around the polling and counting centres. 

6. Providing security for electoral officials at the voting and counting centres.

7. Ensuring the security of election materials at the voting centres and during transportation.

8. Ensuring the security of all electoral material, personnel and citizens during registration of voters, update, revision and any other electoral event. 

To contribute to credible, free and fair elections, we expect security agencies to:

Be guided by and conform to appropriate principles, rules, code of ethics and laws governing police duties, especially in relation to crowd control and the use of force and firearms.  

Devise and use proactive methods to prevent fraud, coercion, intimidation or other manipulation or violence. 

Collect effective intelligence information throughout the campaign period and day preceding to voting in order to be able to appreciate threats to free and fair elections in different places. 

To contribute to credible, free and fair elections, we expect the civil society to:

Monitor the entire electoral process especially the voter registration exercise, process of nomination of candidates by political parties, campaign process and the media. 

Carry out civic and voter education

Observe the election in a more comprehensive manner. 

Train citizens and communities on strategies for mandate protection

Monitor the key stakeholders including INEC, security agencies, political parties and the media. 

To contribute to credible, free and fair elections, we expect citizens to:

Organise themselves into groups and divide the people among the various polling units to protect their votes. 

Follow the electoral process closely, studying the new electoral laws and guidelines by INEC and political parties.

Desist from collecting money from the candidates and engage them on why they are offering themselves for elective positions and what they will give to the electorate. 

Identify opponents and allies of credible, free and fair elections and the decision makers, policy makers and security officials with the power to solve a particular problem. 

Utilise cell phones, newspapers, radio and the internet in making people aware of the issues in the electoral process

Mobilise the whole community to protect their votes

Link up with other groups and organisations that can be of support in protecting their mandate.

According to the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Mahmoud there are eight factors that can lead to free, fair and credible elections in Nigeria namely: 

Enhancing the transparency and credibility of the electoral process in order to increase citizens’ confidence.

Entrenching internal democracy within political parties.

Ensuring inclusivity in the electoral process for marginalized segments of the society such as women, youths and persons living with disability.

Reducing the cost of elections.

Curbing the incidence of violence and sundry malpractices in the electoral process.

Ensuring that violators of the electoral laws are effectively sanctioned. 

Deepening the deployment of technology in election

Increasing the autonomy/independence (both administrative and financial) of the electoral commission. 

CONSTITUTIONAL ALTERATION AND ELECTIONS 

The building of any nation requires action in different sectors to ensure security, provision of services, governance, economic stabilisation, democratisation and infrastructural development. The constitution can play a role in political and socio-economic engineering required for nation building. Constitutions are concerned with the source and regulation of state(public) power but also with overall framework of society and the dynamics of public and private power. Some scholars have argued that the constitution is an instrument of social change and social revolution. 

It is important to give a brief history of the 1999 Constitution to situate its emergence properly and understand that it was an imposition by the departing military regime. On 11th November 1998, Gen Abdulsalami Abubakar inaugurated the Constitution Debate Coordinating Committee (CDCC) made up of 25 members headed by Justice Niki Tobi. Among the members of the Committee was General Sani Abacha’s legal Adviser Auwal Yadudu. The Committee was asked to submit its report by December 31st, 1998. Therefore, it had less than two months to co-ordinate debates, prepare and submit the report for a constitution to be made for a country of about 120 million people and 774 local government areas. The committee called for memoranda, organized some debates and traveled to selected places to listen essentially to traditional rulers and military Administrators. Workers organizations, students, mass organizations, civil society and the organized opposition were not involved in the debate. The committee submitted its report and the Armed Forces Ruling Council promulgated the 1999 Constitution, through Decree No 24 of 1999, a few days to the handing over of power to a civilian regime on 29th may, 1999. It is noteworthy that during the elections that brough the civilian administration to power, no one had seen the constitution. 

As noted above, the 1999 Constitution was enacted by the military without participation of the Nigerian people. Both conservatives and progressives were unanimous that the constitution tells a lie against itself when it claimed in its preamble that “we the people of the Federal Republic of Nigeria….do hereby make, enact and give to ourselves the following constitution.” Although the 1999 Constitution is legal, it lacks legitimacy because it was not made by the people. Therefore, the only hope for the people of Nigeria is to either make a completely new constitution or significantly review the 1999 constitution in such a way as to constitute the ground norm for an inclusive economy.  

Since return to civil rule in 1999, there has been attempts to alter the 1999 Constitution. At the beginning, there was attempt at comprehensive reform of the constitution from 1999 to 2011 but all attempts were unsuccessful until a piecemeal approach was adopted in 2011. Since then, there has been first, second, third and fourth alterations to the 1999 Constitution. Some of the major areas that have been amended include hand over of full powers to the Vice- President in the absence of the President; upgrading the status of the National Industrial Court to a court of superior record and guaranteeing the financial autonomy of the National Assembly and State Assemblies. At the 8th Assembly, the constitutional amendment bills that were assented to and signed into law include financial autonomy for state legislatures (which provided for funding of State Houses of Assembly directly from the consolidated Revenue Fund of the State); several provisions relating to elections (including to give the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) sufficient time to conduct run-off elections within 21 days (instead of 7 days); restriction on the tenure of the President or Governor to a single term if he/she completed the tenure of another President or Governor; and reduction of the age for certain offices (Not too Young to run Bill). 

Scholars are in agreement that an adequate legal framework is a prerequisite for a credible, free and fair elections. There has been a lot of challenges with the conduct of elections in Nigeria from 1923 to date. The challenges include among other things irregularities which put the entire electoral process in doubt; problems with the legislative framework which puts constraints on the electoral process; the inability of various stakeholders to play their roles; lack of room by the electoral system for inclusiveness; lack of independence of electoral commissions; long process of election dispute resolution; irresponsible behaviour by politicians; thuggery and violence; and monetization of politics.  One of the ways that has been used to address these challenges is through the electoral Act. The Electoral Act provides for the structure of INEC, its powers and guidelines for registering voters, procedures for conduct of elections, the registration and regulation of political parties, electoral offences and the determination of election offences.  On return to civil rule in 1999, the first Electoral Act was passed in 2001. This was revised in 2002, 2006 and 2010. Indeed, there has always been attempt after every election to amend the electoral Act to take care of deficiencies noticed during the elections. The 2006 Electoral Act empowered INEC to appoint its Secretary, undertake voter education and prosecute offenders. The 2010 Electoral Act streamlined the powers of INEC to regulate political parties  especially the process of nominating through party primaries; new ceilings for campaign expenditures; empowers INEC to deregister political parties based on the basis of conditions provided in the law and announcement and posting of election results at polling stations among other provisions.  

After the 2015 Elections, there were attempts to amend the Electoral Law with the introduction of the Electoral Act Amendment Bill to among other things make the use of card readers legal. But the President withheld assent due to “some drafting issues” and the fact that the amendment was too close to the elections (less than three months). But the 9th Senate has introduced a modified version of the Electoral Act titled Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill 2019 (Senate Bill No 122) sponsored by Deputy President of the Senate, Senator Ovie Omo-Agege.  It is important to note that following the 2015 general elections, the Supreme Court, held that INEC’s introduction of the innovative ‘Card Reader’ technology (for ACCREDITATION of voters) vide its Guidelines, Regulations and Manuals was unlawful. The apex Court essentially reasoned that the Commission usurped the legislative functions of the National Assembly by unduly enlarging its powers to make the said guidelines and regulations pursuant to the specific provisions of Sections 153(f) and 160 of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as altered) and Section 153 of the Electoral Act, 2010 (as amended). However, many studies show that Nigerians overwhelmingly support the introduction of the ‘Card Reader’ technology to enhance the integrity of the elections. The Bill is therefore partly a response to a plethora of Supreme Court decisions inviting the National Assembly to make sensible amendments to the Electoral Act in this regard, and in many other respects.  Other provisions  of the bill include ensuring that the Act clearly forbids members of political parties from taking up employment or appointment in INEC; mandating INEC to publish the Voters Register for public scrutiny at every Registration Area and on its website at least seven (7) days before a general election; mandating INEC to suspend an election in order to allow a political party that lost its candidate before or during an election to conduct a fresh primary to elect a replacement or new candidate; granting agents of political parties the right to inspect original electoral materials before the commencement of an election; granting political parties that nominated candidates for an election a right (exercisable within a specified timeframe) to inspect its identity/logo appearing on samples of relevant electoral materials proposed to avoid incessant cancellation of elections due to ‘exclusion’ of parties from election due to printers’ errors or deliberate mischief of not including the logos of some parties on electoral materials; defining ‘overvoting’ to include situations where ‘total votes cast’ also exceed ‘total number of accredited voters’; providing greater clarity and transparency in the process of reaching the final announcement of election results, starting with sorting of ballots, counting of votes, etc; mandating INEC to record and keep relevant detailed information of results sheets, ballot papers and other sensitive electoral materials used in an election, with clear consequences for violation; overhauling Section 87 on Nomination of Candidates by Parties for Elections by prescribing maximum fees payable by aspirants and restricting nomination criteria strictly to relevant provisions of the Constitution; clarifying that under Section 138 (1)(a) of the Principal Act, a person shall not be deemed to be unqualified for an elective office and his election shall not be questioned on grounds of qualification if he meets relevant provisions of the Constitution, without more; giving greater effect to the guidelines, regulations and manuals made by the Commission for the conduct of elections; and providing sanctions for giving false information for purpose of registering a political party and ensure that failure by INEC and others to comply with any provision of the Act carries clear and adequate sanctions.

There is also another Electoral Act Amendment Bill, 2020 (SB 176) sponsored by Sen. Buhari Abdulfatai (Oyo North) for an act to empower the INEC to conduct and organize public debates for candidates of political parties gunning for the offices of President, Vice- President, Governors and Deputy Governors. The bill was first read on 19th November, 2019. The second reading was on 19th March, 2020 and was referred to the Senate Committee on INEC. 

PROSPECTS FOR FREE, FAIR AND CREDIBLE ELECTIONS: BEYOND CONSTITUTIONAL ALTERATION

As alluded to above, it must be recognised that electoral reform will not bring about social change i.e. changes to the existing structures and social, political and economic arrangements.  Ultimately, changes will take place if the objective and subjective conditions are conducive for widespread changes in the political arena. We have argued elsewhere that for change to occur in any society requires the presence of objective and subjective conditions. Objective conditions exist when situations are evidently abnormal with huge contradictions which can only be resolved by change. The subjective conditions are the organizational preparations required to bring about change. In our view, the objective condition is ripe in Nigeria. There is poverty in the midst of plenty. There are huge contradictions and gap between the poor and the rich. The country cannot continue in the way it is presently being run. Unfortunately, the subjective conditions are absent. There is no virile political party or movement that is committed to change neither is there a vanguard revolutionary organization to guide that change. There are no well organized democratic and popular organizations to support a change process. Although, there are  individuals committed to and are driving change, the organizational support required for sustainability and great impact is lacking. The challenge is to build the organizations with dynamic and visionary leadership as well as a committed followership that is dedicated to change. Therefore, ongoing attempts to build the requisite organization, leadership and followership for change which must be assisted, nurtured and consolidated for the necessary change to occur in Nigeria.

While alterations to the constitution will help in the conduct of elections, ultimately, democracy and development in Nigeria will depend on a long term strategy of changing the nature and character of the state and the conduct of politics, political party organising and eventual capture of political power by democratic, radical and progressive forces in Nigeria. The present nature and character of the Nigerian state is such that political power has become the easiest method of primitive accumulation of capital. The resource curse and the oil economy have made rent seeking behaviour predominant leading to the collapse of Agriculture and industry. There is the need for a change in the nature and character of the state in a fundamental manner that will affect the political culture and development paradigm in the country. This will affect political party organising so that there will be ideologically rooted parties that will practise issue-based politics. Ultimately democrats and progressive elements will participate and change the colour of politics in Nigeria. 

Finally,  there is the need for  some strategic approaches for the restoration of hope in Nigeria. First and foremost, there is the need to mobilise forces of change to make rigging of election difficult if not impossible. This will require a movement of patriotic and dedicated Nigerians that are opposed to the present political culture. The movement will educate and mobilise citizens to resist rigging of elections. A major strategy that the movement can use is effective communication especially to citizens on the dangers of lack of free, fair and credible elections  to the entire society. Secondly, there is the need for the transformation of institutions of democracy. It must be recognised that democracy goes beyond the ritual of conducting elections. Democracy is a holistic concept that involves process, culture and attitude. This means that deliberate efforts must be made to inculcate democratic values and ethos including building an electoral culture of electing prefects in primary and secondary schools, social clubs, town unions etc

CONCLUSION 

Democracy is the best form of government and elections play a pivotal role in a system of representative democracy. Constitutions, constitutionalism and constitution making or alteration shape the political life of a nation. There are conditions for the conduct of free, fair and credible election in any country involving the active and credible engagement of the judiciary, election management body, political parties and acceptance of the rules of the game by the political community. However, for there to be free, fair and credible elections all stakeholders in the political process (election management body, political parties, security agencies, media, civil society organisations and citizens (voters) must perform their roles. There is therefore the need to go beyond constitutional alteration to have free, fair and credible election in Nigeria. There is the need for change in the nature and character of politics as well as the players in a way that can restore hope to the country. 

ENDNOTES       

Otive Igbuzor, PhD

Founding Executive Director, African Centre for Leadership, Strategy & Development (Centre LSD) and Chief of Staff to the Deputy President of the Senate.

E-mail: [email protected]

View the discussion thread.

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Elections in democratic theory, election institutions and electoral processes, the electoral processes since 1999, conclusion: elections and the prospects of democratic consolidation, elections and democratic transition in nigeria under the fourth republic.

J. Shola Omotola ( [email protected] ) is Lecturer in the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at Redeemer’s University, Nigeria. I thank this journal’s anonymous reviewers for their provocative and useful comments. I also thank Rita Abrahamsen for her ceaseless probing, which served to bring the article to its current state. I am, however, solely responsible for the views expressed.

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J. Shola Omotola, Elections and democratic transition in Nigeria under the Fourth Republic, African Affairs , Volume 109, Issue 437, October 2010, Pages 535–553, https://doi.org/10.1093/afraf/adq040

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This article analyses the impact of elections and particularly their administration on Nigeria’s democratization process. It argues that elections under the Fourth Republic (1999–2007) were characterized by ineffective administration at all stages and levels (before, during and after), resulting in damagingly discredited outcomes. This was due in large part to the weak institutionalization of the primary agencies of electoral administration, particularly the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the political parties. INEC lacks both institutional and administrative autonomy, as manifested by its composition and funding by the presidency, as well as its gross lack of professionalism and security of tenure for its officials. Elections can only engender the consolidation of democracy in Nigeria if the electoral processes are reformed in ways that fundamentally address the autonomy and capability of INEC and related electoral agencies, particularly political parties, to discharge their responsibilities effectively. The recent trend towards challenging electoral fraud in the courts, however, does signal a strengthening of the rule of law and gives some reason for optimism.

As Nigeria celebrates its fiftieth anniversary , it is an apt time to consider its democratic development. From a minimalist perspective, elections are the first and most basic indicator of democracy. In Nigeria, however, elections have been one of the main problems of the democratization process. The country’s struggles for sustainable democracy, good governance, and development have been so daunting that all previous attempts at democratic transition have been futile. The collapse of the First (1960–6) and Second (1979–83) republics, and the abortion of the Third Republic through the criminal annulment of the 12 June 1993 presidential election, are clear indicators of the failure of previous attempts at democratization. After prolonged military rule spanning close to two decades (1983–99), characterized by the wanton violation and repression of the political, economic, and social rights of the people, the re-democratization process begun in 1999 elicited renewed expectations for the consolidation of democracy in the country. 1

when they are administered by a neutral authority; when the electoral administration is sufficiently competent and resourceful to take specific precautions against fraud; when the police, military and courts treat competing candidates and parties impartially; when contenders all have access to the public media; when electoral districts and rules do not grossly handicap the opposition; . . . when the secret of the ballot is protected; when virtually all adults can vote; when procedures for organizing and counting the votes are widely known; and when there are transparent and impartial procedures for resolving election complaints and disputes. 2

This article examines the place of elections, particularly their administration, in the democratic transition process in Nigeria since 1999 in order to ascertain the extent to which elections have helped to strengthen or retard democratic consolidation. The article focuses primarily on electoral governance by the electoral management body (EMB), in this case the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), with partial reference to other core institutional actors in the democratization process. How these institutions are organized, managed, funded, and motivated is crucially important. Are they rooted in society, and are they independent, accountable, and democratic? What are their attitudes to democracy and the rule of law? The article engages these questions and argues that the democratic qualities of Nigerian elections under the Fourth Republic (1999–2007) have been shallow because of ineffective governance. This is a result of the weak institutionalization of core institutions in the governance of the electoral processes, particularly INEC and the political parties. Notable weaknesses include lack of independence and professionalism, political interference, undemocratic attitudes, and lack of respect for the rule of law. The form and character of the Nigerian state, giving rise especially to political instability and severe underdevelopment, are other sources of the deepening crisis of electoral governance in Nigeria. However, the recent trend towards challenging electoral fraud in the courts gives some hope that elections may still contribute towards the consolidation of Nigeria’s democracy.

The comparative literature on democratization, particularly during Africa’s ‘third wave’, emphasizes the significance of elections. 3 Elections have been seen as central to competitive politics. Ideally, they guarantee political participation and competition, which in turn are pivotal to democratic transition and consolidation. Elections are also central to the institutionalization of orderly succession in a democratic setting, creating a legal-administrative framework for handling inter-elite rivalries. They also provide a modicum of popular backing for new rulers. 4 Implicit in these assumptions is that elections are important for the institutionalization of popular participation, competition, and legitimacy, three core foundations of democracy. 5 Michael Bratton observes that ‘the consolidation of democracy involves the widespread acceptance of rules to guarantee political participation and political competition. Elections – which empower ordinary citizens to choose among contestants for top political offices – clearly promote rules.’ 6

The regularity, openness and acceptability of elections signal whether basic constitutional, behavioral, and attitudinal foundations are being laid for sustainable democratic rule . . . while you can have elections without democracy, you cannot have democracy without elections. If nothing else, the convening of scheduled multi-party elections serves the minimal function of marking democracy’s survival. 11

Staffan Lindberg adds weight to this thinking, especially in the African context, when he speaks about the ‘surprising significance’ of African elections. 12 Lindberg observes that ‘the positive effects of holding repetitive elections are perhaps not restricted to free and fair elections, at least not in the early stages of democratization’. 13 He argues, for instance, that electoral problems such as ‘inflated voters registries, political violence during the campaign and polling day, outright fraudulent voting and collation of votes, intimidation of voters and political opponents . . . may stimulate activism in society even more than free elections’. 14

Lindberg’s argument, however, underestimates the overall costs of poorly governed elections, including their impact on legitimacy. It is the contention of this article that the form and character of elections, either as a reinforcement of democratic consolidation or as regression, are largely contingent upon a series of factors. The most basic of these relates to the EMB and other institutional-political frameworks that surround it – including political parties, mass media, and the judiciary – the interaction among them, and their degree of institutionalization. 15 These institutions are important for effective electoral administration because ‘the indeterminacy of elections’ – the possibility of elections leading to alternation of power – ‘is to a large extent a function of an impartial administration of elections’. 16

The importance of electoral governance, defined as ‘the wider set of activities that creates and maintains the broad institutional framework in which voting and electoral competition take place’, 17 to democratic transition and consolidation cannot be overemphasized. Electoral governance is a comprehensive and multi-tasked activity, involving the three levels of rule making, rule application, and rule adjudication. Rule making involves designing the basic rules of the electoral game; rule application deals with implementing these rules to specifications to organize the electoral game; and rule adjudication entails resolving disputes arising from the game. On the whole, electoral governance involves ‘the interaction of constitutional, legal, and institutional rules and organizational practices that determine the basic rules for election procedures and electoral competition; organize campaigns, voter registration, and election day tallies; and resolve disputes and certify results’. 18 In these processes, ‘the interplay of power structures and processes is central to electoral outcomes’. 19 As such, EMBs are part of ‘a set of institutions and rules that together determine the probity of electoral processes, and in emerging democracies, where administrative processes are weak and distrust across political actors is high, their role at the center of electoral processes tends to be more visible’. 20 Thus whether electoral governance will contribute to democratic consolidation or regression will depend on the independence and professionalism of electoral institutions, particularly the EMB, because ‘institutional structures that promote a “level playing field” at each stage of the electoral process will enhance the extent to which voters perceive their elections to be fair’. 21

In their comparative study of Latin America to test the significance of electoral governance in the consolidation of democracy, Hartlyn, McCoy, and Mustillo established ‘an important positive role for professional, independent electoral commissions on electoral outcomes’, showing that ‘formal-legal independence matters when the rules of the game are likely to be respected’. Moreover, ‘low-quality elections are found disproportionately where incumbents seek reelection and where victory margins are extremely wide rather than narrow’. 22 This is not to say, however, that effective electoral governance alone guarantees good elections: obviously a number of forces, including all the social, economic, and political variables, intervene to play prominent roles in influencing the process, integrity, and outcome of elections. Nevertheless, good elections are not possible without effective electoral governance. 23

It is perhaps for this reason that the new focus of research in electoral studies and democratization is gradually shifting towards electoral administration. 24 These studies demonstrate that EMBs, as the primary institutional mechanism, are vital to overall quality, defined as ‘the extent to which political actors see the entire electoral process as legitimate and binding’. 25

Winners and losers can accept electoral processes and results as binding provided elections are effectively administered, but effective administration is only possible if the EMB has autonomy, measured basically in terms of its structure, composition, funding and capability. 26 This is why one of the hallmarks of a mature democracy is professional, independent, non-partisan election administration. However, other relevant institutions like political parties, mass media, the security agencies, and civil society groups (CSOs) are also required to play their own roles effectively, including the provision of logistical support, which is vital to the operation of the electoral body. The oversight functions of the legislature and judiciary are also crucial.

In Nigeria, the primary responsibility of electoral administration rests with an EMB that has undergone several changes in nomenclature under different regimes, but not as much change in its structure. To be sure, between 1959 and 1999 the EMB was renamed six times. Before the civil war it was the Electoral Commission of Nigeria (ECN, 1959–63); then the Federal Electoral Commission (FEC, 1963–6). In the latter part of the 1970s it was the Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO, 1976–9). During the Babangida regime (1986–93), it was renamed the National Electoral Commission (NEC). General Sani Abacha (1993–8) replaced the NEC with the National Electoral Commission of Nigeria (NECON), while General Abdusallami Abukakar, Abacha’s successor (1998–9), rechristened it the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). 27 It has also been reconstituted endlessly; in 1958, twice in 1963, 1964, 1977, 1981, 1987, 1989, 1993, 1994, 1998, 2000, and 2004. 28 Despite (or perhaps because of) these changes, the EMB has not been able to administer elections effectively, and its ‘autonomy and capacity’ over the years have been suspect. 29

Three major indicators of lack of autonomy are identifiable. The first is its composition, which is the prerogative of the President. Since 1999, INEC has been composed of a chairman, twelve national commissioners, and 37 resident electoral commissioners, one each for the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory, all of whom are appointed by the federal government. This makes INEC easily susceptible to manipulation by the President and the federal authorities. The oversight role expected of the legislature in the screening of presidential nominees for INEC positions is rendered impotent by the fact that the President’s party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), has a legislative majority sufficient to secure its wishes in Parliament.

The second indicator relates to the insecure tenure of the INEC chairman and commissioners. Job security generally increases the stakes officials have in the electoral process: if they mess up the process, they may lose their positions. Unlike in Ghana, where the chair of the Electoral Commission and the two deputies have security of tenure (they enjoy the same terms and conditions of service as Justices of the Court of Appeal and cannot be removed arbitrarily until retirement at age 70), 30 Nigerian electoral officers statutorily occupy office for five years, renewable for another term. They can, however, be removed by the President on flimsy grounds. This was the fate of two successive electoral commission chairmen under Babangida, namely Professors Eme Awa and Humphrey Nwosu, who were removed from office in 1989 and 1993 respectively in questionable circumstances. The former was removed for his uncompromising stance in the management of the Electoral Commission, and the latter following the military government’s decision to annul the 12 June 1993 presidential elections contrary to the position of the Commission. 31

The third issue relates to the funding of the electoral body. Ordinarily, an independent EMB would require a consolidated account, where a specified proportion of federal revenue is allocated and under the direct control of INEC. In this way, the EMB can enjoy independent funding, thereby limiting the financial control the executive can exert. In Nigeria, however, this is not yet the case. Under the current regime, INEC does not have an independent budget or sources of funding, but instead depends almost entirely on the presidency. This significant financial control contributes to the inability of INEC to make adequate, timely planning and preparations for successful elections.

INEC’s capability has been severely constrained in other ways. Two primary indicators are the appointment of people without sufficient professional and intellectual competence to lead the body. For instance, Professor Maurice Iwu, the recently removed national chairman, had no professional experience in electoral management and a health sciences background. The second is INEC’s reliance on the use of ad hoc staff, who are usually hastily briefed for a day about their duties. After every flawed election, the tendency has been for INEC to lay the blame on the doorstep of its temporary staff, rather than accept responsibility at the leadership level. 32

Worse still, INEC reflects the centrist proclivities of the federal democracy. The most visible evidence of this over-centralization of power is that INEC has responsibility for the administration of all federal and state elections. As well as presidential and National Assembly contests, it supervises gubernatorial and House of Assembly elections across 36 states. The only responsibility assigned to the State Independent Electoral Commission (SIEC) is the administration of local government elections.

The problems of democratic transition in Nigeria, as in several other African countries, are deep-rooted and well-known. 33 Elections represent a core component of these problems. Already in the colonial era, Nigeria proved unable to organize credible elections acceptable to all democratic players, particularly the opposition parties. But under the fledgling Fourth Republic, Nigeria has for the first time in its post-independence experience been able to hold three consecutive elections at regular intervals (1999, 2003, and 2007). This section analyses the administration of these elections, underscoring their effects on the democratization process.

The founding election of 1999: The first election under the current democratization process in Nigeria took place in 1999. Founding elections in Africa, usually the first in a democratic transition process, have been found to exhibit certain features that tend to inhibit the democratization process. These features include the landslide victory, rejection of results by losers, and poor administration of elections. 34 The 1999 Nigerian elections shared all these negative features.

Over the course of three months (December 1998–February 1999), Nigeria had four rounds of elections. These were the local government council elections of 5 December 1998, state House of Assembly and gubernatorial elections of 9 January 1999, National Assembly elections of 20 February 1999, and the presidential election of 27 February 1999. These elections were contested by the three registered political parties: the PDP; the All People’s Party (APP) – later All Nigerian People’s Party (ANPP); and the Alliance for Democracy (AD). Although these parties claimed to be national in outlook, each maintained dominance in specific geographical-ethnic domains. At the end of the presidential election, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP was declared the winner and the duly elected President of Nigeria. He won with a total of 18,738,154 votes (62.78 percent) over Olu Falae, who ran for the APP/AD alliance, with 11,110,287 (37.22 percent). 35 The PDP extended its dominance to all other elections at the national, state, and local levels, and in executive and legislative elections.

The election results were challenged. There were pockets of protest regarding the credibility of the elections, the most notable being the litigation filed by the defeated candidate, who challenged the results of the election. The elections were not credible, as attested by reports of local and international observers including the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG), the Carter Center, National Democratic Institute (NDI), International Republican Institute (IRI), and the EU. All reported widespread irregularities, including a ‘miraculous’ 100 percent turnout of voters in Rivers State during the presidential election. 36 Yet, the attendant protests were moderate as major stakeholders in the elections – including political parties, candidates, and civil society – decided to sheath their swords, possibly appeased by the renewed promise of democracy. 37 Because the election was meant essentially to disengage the military from politics, not much attention was paid to its credibility.

Nevertheless, allegations of electoral corruption, with the active connivance of INEC and probably the transitional military regime, challenged the administration of the election and raise basic questions regarding INEC’s independence, impartiality, and accountability. INEC allegedly rigged the 1999 elections in favour of Obasanjo in demonstration of military solidarity, 38 but, more importantly, the elections were rigged in order to avoid a coalition government and the pitfalls of the First Republic, when no party had enough seats to form the government. As a source puts it, ‘the reason for the major rigging was to ensure that the party had an absolute majority in order to avoid the coalition and subsequent weak take-off of a new government, which was part of the crises of the transition governments of 1959 and 1979’. 39

The susceptibility of INEC to political manipulation was due to its lack of institutional and financial autonomy. All its principal officers, including its chairman, national electoral commissioners, and resident electoral commissioners, were, as constitutionally mandated, the political appointees of the President. 40 Consequently, INEC had to rely on the executive arm, particularly the presidency, for its actions and inactions. The loyalty and accountability of INEC, therefore, was first and foremost to the executive to whom it had to go cap in hand begging for audience and funding.

On the whole, the 1999 general elections reflected some conventional wisdom about Nigerian elections. One was the influence of forces of identity, particularly ethnicity and religion, though the emergence of the two presidential candidates from the same geographical axis – the south-west – moderated their impact. Yet, the parties were each dominant along ethno-regional and religious divides. There was also the gender dimension: women were extremely marginalized, accounting for less than 3 percent of elective offices at all levels, meaning that they have ‘yet to “penetrate” the core circle of politics, where the “real” things happen’. 41 Moreover, there was an unprecedented monetization of politics as “moneybags” hijacked the electoral process and engaged seriously in vote buying. 42 The situation was allowed to deteriorate to this degree because of INEC’s inability to enforce political finance regulations. Nevertheless, the military eventually handed over power to President Obasanjo on 29 May 1999, marking Nigeria’s return to civil rule.

The 2003 second election: Second elections have been regarded as a crucial step towards democratic consolidation. The democratization process is seen to be on course, especially when elections come at regular intervals. Consequently, more attention is usually paid to the preparation, conduct, and credibility of a second election, at all levels. The road to the 2003 elections was full of potholes, which ‘were either left unfilled or filled haphazardly before the elections were held’. 43 The registration of more political parties (increased from three to thirty) and a review of the voters’ register were alarm signals amid palpable fears and tension across the country – everyone knew that the stakes were higher than in 1999. A lot of manipulation and manoeuvring went into the build-up, and the hand of the state (in other words, the presidency) was clear. Most notably, President Obasanjo changed the order of the elections through the 2001 Electoral Bill. Whereas in 1999 elections proceeded from the lower to the higher levels – local, state, national assembly and presidential – the 2001 Bill specified that the presidential election would come first. This was interpreted by the opposition as a calculated step by the PDP to facilitate a bandwagon effect in subsequent elections should Obasanjo’s PDP win the first elections. The governors in particular saw the reordering as an attempt to storm their state-based strongholds. The crisis generated considerable controversy, even among people in the highest echelons of power. Then President Obasanjo, Senate President Pius Anyim, and Speaker Ghali Umar Na‘Abba all traded accusations and counter-accusations over the distortions. The ensuing struggle over the legal framework of the election thus gave the impression that the playing field might not be level. In sum: ‘The politics behind this was that both the President and the National Assembly wanted to secure their re-election before the turn of the governors; because the state governors have become very powerful and if elected first might use their local political machines to thwart the political ambitions of the National Assembly members and the President for re-election.’ 44

It was therefore not surprising that the 2003 elections generated massive interest domestically and internationally. Despite some protests about INEC’s level of preparation, all the thirty political parties participated at one level of the elections or the other. A number of domestic and international observers also participated. The administration of the elections was generally poor. INEC’s organizational weakness and lack of autonomy from political forces all hampered its effectiveness. For instance, the review of voters exercise it conducted was fraught with irregularities, particularly non-registration of eligible voters and withholding and sale of voters’ cards. 45

The actual conduct of the elections left more to be desired. Some of the basic problems included the unnecessary militarization of the elections through the massive deployment of security forces. Admittedly, as mentioned above, there was tension across the country prior to the elections – particularly in states such as Kwara, Anambra, and Borno, where the battle lines had been drawn between acclaimed godfathers and their estranged sons (incumbent governors). That was not enough to justify the militarization of voting, which not only undermined voter turnout but also provided cover for the INEC to rig the elections in favour of the ruling party. 46

The electoral results show that the PDP emerged as the winner at all levels with very wide margins. For example, this time President Obasanjo won the presidency with a total of 24,109,157 (61.80 percent) of total votes cast, while General Mohammed Buhari, the ANPP candidate, emerged runner-up with 12,495,326 (32.3 percent). This shows the firm grip of the retired military officers on Nigerian politics. The PDP also had a landslide victory in the National Assembly elections, winning 75 of the 109 senatorial seats, leaving the ANPP and AD with 28 and 6 seats respectively. The PDP’s massive victory was due largely to the power of incumbency, which enabled it to have substantial and unhindered access to state machineries, including the treasury, mass media, INEC, and the security forces. As the party in power, it also enjoyed good patronage from wealthy individuals and corporate bodies in terms of financial donations in exchange for the protection of their business interests.

The most troubling dimension of the electoral trend, however, was the almost total eclipse of the AD in its traditional stronghold, the south-west. Historically, this region has been renowned for its oppositional politics. But in 2003 it was caught napping, as the PDP won the gubernatorial seats in five of the six states, as well as majorities in the state Houses of Assembly and National Assembly elections in the zone. Again this was due to the PDP’s power of incumbency, but also to the attempt by the House of Representatives to impeach Obasanjo in August 2002, shortly before the elections. This attempt was interpreted by the south-west as a northern ethnic agenda to recapture power at all costs. Moreover, Obasanjo had accorded the south-west some reasonably high levels of patronage between 1999 and 2003. This was despite his rejection at the poll by the region in the 1999 presidential election. The belated electoral alliance between the PDP and AD – where the latter fielded no presidential candidate of its own, but directed its supporters to vote for Obasanjo – also contributed to the problem. 47 It was a practical demonstration of the south-western agenda to frustrate the perceived northern anti-Obasanjo agenda. No doubt all these factors contributed – but, more importantly, INEC as an agent of the presidency continued its tradition of manipulating and rigging the elections in favour of the ruling party.

The result was the sharp decline and decay of opposition politics, not only in the south-west, but across the country. The defeat of the AD in the south-west almost entirely denied the party its base, turning it into a weakling in terms of providing a credible oppositional platform to the PDP. Thus the PDP became ‘the only party in town’, making and unmaking public policies solely at its own discretion. This dominance was so emphatic that the PDP started behaving like a mini-army under a garrison commander, driving the country towards a one-party state. 48 The high-handedness of the PDP was partly a reflection of its dictatorial leadership and centrist organizational structure, where dissenting voices are seldom allowed a hearing.

The problem may not really be PDP’s landslide per se , as much as the way it acquired it. If the PDP had attained such a pedigree by open, transparent and credible means, concern about the outcome would probably have been less acute. But that was not the case. The 2003 elections, according to reports of local and international observers, were fraught with contradictions, including vote buying, ballot stuffing, rigging, and violence. 49 These shortcomings were largely a result of inadequate preparation by INEC, resulting in logistical problems and inefficient officials. Pre-election activities, such as voters’ registration and education, were rushed through. In particular, the display of the voters’ register for verification was not carried out effectively, as a result of which voters’ registration exercises created room for electoral fraud.

This situation could not have been avoided, since INEC was neither legally nor practically insulated from politics. The 2002 Electoral Law that governed the elections stipulates that those to be appointed as electoral commissioners must be qualified to be members of the House of Representatives. This can be interpreted to mean ‘that those appointed as members of the electoral commission should be party members, as membership is a major criterion to be elected into the House of Representatives. Nigeria does not allow independent candidacy in elections.’ 50 This, in itself, engenders declining public confidence in INEC and partly explains why the election results were vigorously contested to the extent that the coalition of opposition parties unanimously announced their rejection of the results. Again, this raises the question of the independence and impartiality of INEC, and of its ability to create a level playing field for all electoral players.

The 2007 general elections: The 2007 general elections were the third in the series that maps Nigeria’s democratization since 1999. It was another opportunity for change and power turnover in the country, given the seeming popular disenchantment with the ruling PDP. 51 These expectations, judging by the overall quality and outcomes of the elections, were effectively squandered.

Prior to the elections, the political atmosphere was again very tense. Among other mind-boggling incidents, President Olusegun Obasanjo condescendingly declared that, for him and the PDP, the 2007 election was ‘a do or die affair’. 52 INEC too, rather than focusing on adequate preparations for the elections, was widely engaged in unnecessary distractions, most notably litigation against opposition candidates in its attempts to screen and disqualify candidates. Its insistence on preventing Alhaji Atiku Abubakar – then Vice-President and presidential candidate of a leading opposition party, the Action Congress (AC) – from contesting, although the electoral law made it clear that INEC does not have such powers, snowballed the tension. Despite INEC’s jaunty expressions about its state of preparedness and ability to conduct free, fair, and credible elections, events before and during the elections proved otherwise. The political atmosphere was permeated with jaundiced views of INEC’s capability, independence and impartiality.

Despite these reservations, Nigerians enthusiastically went to the polls for the gubernatorial and state Houses of Assembly elections on 14 April, and the presidential and National Assembly elections on 21 April. In the results of the elections, INEC awarded the PDP an unimaginable landslide victory at all levels – unimaginable because the last eight years of PDP leadership had not improved the living conditions of average Nigerians in any fundamental sense. Unemployment, inflation, poverty, insecurity, and violence were on the rise. The much-orchestrated reform agenda was predicated on neo-liberal ideologies of the free market, where the rich profit at the expense of the poor. 53 Under such circumstances, a massive victory for the ruling party is likely to be questioned.

The manner by which the PDP garnered the votes was puzzling. Across the country, there was unprecedented rigging, ballot stuffing, falsification of results, intimidation of voters, and direct assault on the people. In some extreme instances, voting did not take place. 54 This was most prominent in the south-east, south-south and south-western geo-political zones of the country, where opposition parties were believed to be most formidable. In Enugu State, for example, Ken Nnamani, then Senate president, like many others, could not vote in the presidential election because voting materials were not made available. There were instances where INEC decided to disqualify candidates on the eve of the elections, contrary to court orders. This was the case with opposition gubernatorial candidates in Kogi, Adamawa and Anambra states, where opposition candidates (ANPP and AC) were excluded. Substitutions of candidates who won party primaries was another major issue in the 2007 election, the most celebrated case involving the gubernatorial candidate in Rivers State. Indeed, local and international observers were unanimous in their outright condemnation of the elections. 55

That massive irregularities marred the elections is supported by some verifiable indices. First, the results of the elections were bitterly disputed and protested in an unprecedented manner, though largely non-violently. From the conduct of the elections alone, 1,250 election petitions arose. The presidential election had eight, the gubernatorial 105, the Senate 150, the House of Representatives 331, and the state Houses of Assembly 656. 56 With a few exceptions, especially the gubernatorial elections in Osun and Ekiti states, most of these cases have been decided in the final appellate court. For example, the two leading opposition candidates in the presidential election pursued their cases to the Supreme Court, where the case was decided in favour of President Yar’Adua of the PDP. However, results were annulled in several states and at different levels, including the gubernatorial elections in Kogi, Edo, Kebbi, Sokoto, Adamawa, Ekiti and Ondo states. In most of these cases, a re-run was mandated, which the PDP won. In Ondo and Edo states, however, declaratory judgments were given, leading to the restoration of the electoral victory of the Labour Party and AC in the respective states. The substituted candidate in Rivers State was also reinstated by the Supreme Court. 57

The 1,250 election tribunal and court cases recorded are just the tip of the iceberg. This is so when elections are considered to be a combination of pre-election, election and post-election events. In an astonishing revelation, The Herald , a national daily, reveals that the 2007 elections recorded an alarming 6,180 cases throughout the electoral process. 58 This may be correct given the high level of political gangsterism and the political culture of impunity that characterized the political scene. The most relevant example relates to the manipulation of party primaries to pave the way for anointed candidates of the godfathers, especially within the ruling PDP. 59 Where this failed, the party hierarchy, at the instance of the presidency, resorted to elimination by substituting the names of the preferred candidates for those who actually won the primaries. A typical case was in Imo State, where Senator Ifeanyi Ararume won the primaries but another candidate’s name was put on the ballot nonetheless. Ararume challenged this and won in the Supreme Court, but the victory proved costly: the PDP in the state decided to expel him for anti-party activity, for it is an abomination to challenge an internal PDP decision in court. Whatever happens must be treated as a ‘family affair’. The PDP also decided not to field a candidate for the governorship election in the state, and since the electoral laws do not recognize independent candidacy, Ararume was tactically pushed out of the race. 60

Be that as it may, the resort to the courts to seek electoral justice signals the gradual acceptance of the rule of law as the most viable option for those seeking redress. Gradually, Nigerians are beginning to regain their confidence in the judiciary. This is partly a result of certain landmark judgements delivered by the judiciary in recent times, especially as the race to the 2007 elections intensified. One notable example was the Supreme Court judgements that stopped INEC from disqualifying Atiku barely a few days before the election. These are signs of political institutionalization, where political actors exploit legal avenues, as opposed to unconventional channels, to seek redress. If sustained, it is a sign of democratic deepening. That is not to say that all protests about the elections were peaceful. In some south-western states, particularly Osun, Oyo, Ekiti and Ondo, there were violent protests against the massive rigging and overturning of the people’s will. Killing, arson, looting, and other forms of violence were pervasive in these states, leading to deplorable security situations. These shortcomings cast ominous shadows on the elections and the prospects of democratic consolidation.

Nevertheless, the 2007 elections are reputable for at least four important reasons. First, that the election took place at the expected interval is reassuring. It was the first time in the history of the country that a democratically elected civilian government completed two terms of eight years, conducted elections, and successfully handed over to another elected government. As remarkable as this seems, it should not be interpreted to mean that any sort of elections would do in the third election test – indeed the declining quality of Nigerian elections is increasingly being considered as a source of democratic deconsolidation. 61 Second, the resort to the courts to seek electoral justice is a clear deviation from the use of self-help strategies to settle electoral scores in the past. This shows that the political class is gaining increasing confidence in the judiciary as an important democratic institution. Third, the new government’s publicly avowed commitment to the rule of law, keeping faith in the courts, and executing all courts, judgements on the elections, even when against the PDP, point toward the gradual emergence of democratic political culture. This was unthinkable under ex-President Obasanjo, who unilaterally selected which courts, decision to execute. Finally, the maladministration of the election has intensified civil activism for electoral reform and pressured the government to grant some limited concessions, including the ongoing electoral reform process. These developments are important for building a democratic political culture rooted in the rule of law. Though these gains do not constitute consolidated democracy, they may help reclaim public confidence in the democratization process.

The foregoing analysis suggests that the prospect of consolidating democracy in Nigeria through elections remains a tall order, though not impossible to deliver. Consolidating democracy through elections depends largely on the institutional foundations of the electoral processes, particularly the EMB – in this case, the INEC. A professional, capable, and independent INEC, free from partisan influence and government control, would provide better prospects of effective electoral administration. Only such an electoral body could conduct credible elections, whose outcomes will be acceptable to the majority of people, including opposition parties. From the preceding analysis, it is clear that this is not yet the case in Nigeria. In its present form and character, INEC enjoys limited legitimacy and respect among Nigerians.

There are many reasons for this. Not only is INEC grossly deficient in autonomy and professionalism, but it is also inefficient. The presidency wields overbearing influence on INEC, making it impossible for it to exercise independence and provide a level playing field to all political actors. More importantly, INEC is saddled with the task of governing the entire electoral cycle – pre-election, election, and post-election at federal and state levels. These tasks are obviously ‘beyond the scope of a single body. The logistics of conducting countrywide elections mean that INEC is overwhelmed during voting and counting.’ 62 The electoral laws, which can be manipulated to secure the services of politicians within the electoral body, is another dimension of the problem. Thus, INEC has been hamstrung in the effective governance of elections.

The high level of instability in the country since independence in 1960 has also contributed to the weak institutionalization of INEC. Due to frequent change of governments, it has been subjected to repeated renaming and restructuring. 63 The main considerations in these exercises have been political, rather than relating to the search for institutional autonomy and administrative efficiency. 64 The high level of instability has not allowed for the evolution and development of electoral governance culture, routinized in design and implementation. Instability has also had an impact on the cultivation of democratic political culture and citizenship, which is today responsible for the predominance of politicians who are not democrats in the true sense of the term. The dearth of democrats has also contributed to the suffocation and shrinking of the political space in which democratic institutions can operate, including INEC and political parties.

There is an urgent need to make adequate efforts to reform electoral institutions. INEC represents the most important of all the institutional foundations of elections in Nigeria. It ought to be independent, impartial, and courageous in discharging its responsibilities. The starting point would be to detach it completely from the presidency and make it an entirely autonomous body. The appointment of its political head and commissioners should be insulated from politics, while its funding should be charged to the consolidated account. Like any other federal parastatal, INEC should receive its statutory allocation in the annual budget, thus reducing its financial dependence on the presidency. Yet, for institutional reform to work well, it must be pursued along with attitudinal and behavioural reform. From historical insight, the institutional foundations of elections in Nigeria fail not because they are inherently corruptible or incapable of doing the right thing, but because main political actors design them to fail so that they can advance their self-interests. What is therefore important is a continuous process of social mobilization and political re-engineering that emphasizes value reorientation at all levels. While the political class should be the major targets, the campaign should be comprehensive and holistic, leaving out no one, at all levels of socio-political organization. In this Herculean task, the civil society and mass media are crucial. Their roles should be popular sensitization, education, conscientization, and mobilization against the anti-democratic dispositions of some political actors at all levels.

Despite all the daunting difficulties, there are reasons for optimism. Civil society organizations, pro-democracy forces and opposition parties are fighting relentlessly for a comprehensive reform of the electoral process. The Electoral Reform Network (ERN) and the Centre for Democracy and Development are leading examples; both submitted memoranda to the Uwais Electoral Reform Committee and are still following up this initiative in the National Assembly. The recent rise of the Save Nigeria Group (SNG) – a coalition of several civil society organizations, along with pro-democracy and human rights activists, to champion the cause of sustainable electoral reform and good governance – has added weight to the pressure for reform. The reforms being championed are targeted mainly at securing the institutional autonomy, administrative efficiency, and professionalism of INEC. Recent changes in the leadership of INEC, including the removal of the controversial and discredited Maurice Iwu and his replacement with Professor Attahiru Jega – a leading political scientist who is also a labour and democracy activist – are some of the gains of the ongoing reform process. Moreover, the judiciary is becoming increasingly courageous and assertive in the delivery of electoral justice. These advances, in addition to international support such as election monitoring, are essential for the institutionalization of effective electoral administration for democratic consolidation. The emerging scenarios suggest that, despite its troubled electoral history, Nigeria’s fiftieth independence anniversary offers hope of an alternative future built on institutional engineering and reinforced by behavioural and attitudinal change. It is perhaps not a mere coincidence that Nigeria’s first democratic decade coincides with this anniversary. It may be an indicator of better things to come.

Eghosa E. Osaghae, ‘Democratization in sub-Saharan Africa: faltering prospects, new hopes’, Journal of Contemporary African Studies 17 , 1 (1999), pp. 4–25.

Larry Diamond, The Spirit of Democracy: The struggle to build free societies throughout the world (Times Books, New York, NY, 2008), p. 25.

Staffan Lindberg, Democracy and Elections in Africa (Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, OH, 2006); Staffan Lindberg (ed.), Democratization by Elections: A new mode of transition? (Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, OH, 2009).

Arnold Hughes, and Roy May, ‘The politics of succession in black Africa’, Third World Quarterly 10 , 1 (1988), p. 20.

Staffan Lindberg, ‘The democratic qualities of multiparty elections: participation, competition and legitimacy in Africa’, Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 42 , 1 (2004) pp. 61–105.

Michael Bratton, ‘Second elections in Africa’, Journal of Democracy 9 , 3 (1998), p. 51.

Andreas Schedler (ed.), Electoral Authoritarianism: The dynamics of unfree competition (Lynne Rienner, Boulder, CO, 2006), pp. 1–26; Andreas Schedler, ‘Elections without democracy: the menu of manipulation’, Journal of Democracy 13 , 2 (2002), p. 46.

Said Adejumobi, ‘Elections in Africa: a fading shadow of democracy?’, International Political Science Review 21 , 1 (2000), pp. 59–73; Tukumbi Lumumba-Kasongo (ed.) Liberal Democracy and its Critics in Africa: Political dysfunction and the struggle for social progress (Codesria, Dakar, 2005).

Andreas Schedler, ‘The nested game of democratization by elections’, International Political Science Review 23 , 1 (2002), pp. 103–22.

Bratton, ‘Second elections’, p. 52.

Staffan Lindberg, ‘The surprising significance of African elections’, Journal of Democracy 16 , 1 (2006) pp. 139–51.

Staffan Lindberg, ‘Introduction: Democratization by elections: a new mode of transition?’, in Lindberg, Democratization by Elections, p. 6.

Ibid ., p. 6.

Robert A Pastor, ‘The role of electoral administration in democratic transitions: implications for policy and research’, Democratization 6 , 4 (Winter 1999), pp. 1–27; Jorgen Elklit and Andrew Reynolds, ‘The impact of election administration on the legitimacy of emerging democracies: a new comparative politics research agenda’, Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 40 , 2 (2002), pp. 81–118.

Adele L. Jinadu, ‘Matters arising: African elections and the problem of electoral administration’, African Journal of Political Science 2 , 1 (1997), p. 1.

Shaheen Mozaffar and Andreas Schedler, ‘The comparative study of electoral governance – Introduction’, International Political Science Review 23 , 1 (2002), p. 7.

Jonathan Hartlyn, Jennifer McCoy, and Thomas M. Mustillo, ‘Electoral governance matters: explaining the quality of elections in contemporary Latin America’, Comparative Political Studies 41 , 1 (2008), p. 75.

Adigun Agbaje and Said Adejumobi, ‘Do votes count? The travail of electoral politics in Nigeria’, Africa Development 31 , 3 (2006), pp. 25–44.

Ibid ., p. 76.

Sarah Birch, ‘Electoral institutions and popular confidence in electoral processes: a cross-national analysis’ , Electoral Studies 27 , 1 (2008), pp. 305–20.

Hartlyn et al .,‘Electoral governance matters’, p. 73.

Mozaffar and Schedler, ‘The comparative study of electoral governance’, p. 6.

Mozaffar, ‘Patterns of electoral governance’; Mozaffar and Schedler, ‘The comparative study of electoral governance’; Jorgen Elklit and Palle Svensson. ‘What makes elections free and fair?’, Journal of Democracy 8 , 3 (1997), pp. 34–45; Jorgen Elklit, ‘Electoral institutional change and democratization: you can lead a horse to the water, but you cannot make it drink’, Democratization 6 , 4 (1999), pp. 28–51; Elklit and Reynolds, ‘The impact of election administration’; Pastor, ‘The role of electoral administration’.

Elklit and Reynolds, ‘The impact of election administration’, pp. 86–7.

International IDEA, Electoral Management Design: The International IDEA Handbook (International IDEA, Stockholm, 2006).

Agbaje and Adejumobi, ‘Do votes count?’, p. 31.

See Browne Onuoha, ‘The electoral machine: the bureaucracy and the electoral process in the making of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic’ in Lai Olurode and Remi Anifowose (eds.), Issues in Nigeria’s 1999 General Elections (John West and Rebonik Publications, Lagos, 2004), p. 39.

B. Agyeman-Duah, ‘Elections and electoral politics in Ghana’s Fourth Republic’, Critical Perspectives 18 (July 2005), p. 3; and J. Shola Omotola, ‘Ghana defies the odds again: the 2008 elections and the consolidation of democracy, Politeia 29 , 1 (2008), pp. 42–64.

Humphrey Nwosu, Laying the Foundation for Nigeria’s Democracy: My account of June 12, 1993 presidential election and its annulment (Macmillan, Lagos, 2008).

Maurice Iwu, The April 2007 Elections in Nigeria: What went right? (Department of Political Science, University of Ibadan, 2008).

Samuel Decalo, ‘The process, prospects and constraints of democratization in Africa’, African Affairs 92 , 362 (1992), pp. 7–35; Tunji Olagunju, Adele L. Jinadu, and Samuel Oyovbare, Transition to Democracy in Nigeria, 1985–1993 (Safari and Spectrum Books, Ibadan, 1993); J. Shola Omotola, ‘From importer to exporter: the changing role of Nigeria in promoting democratic values in Africa’ in Joelien Pretorius (ed.), African Politics: Beyond the third wave of democratisation (Juta Academic Press, Cape Town, 2008), pp. 32–54.

Bratton, ‘Second elections’, p. 55.

Solomon O. Akinboye, ‘Nigeria’s 1999 multi-party elections: an overview of electoral conduct and results’ in Olurode and Anifowose (eds.), Issues in Nigeria’s 1999 General Elections , pp. 146–7.

The Carter Center, for example, reported widespread ballot box stuffing, inflated voter turnout, altered results, voter disenfranchisement, and inconsistent application of INEC’s procedures across the country. See Carter Center, ‘Postelection statement on Nigeria elections, March 1 1999’. The report was issued in response to the 27 February presidential election of 1999. See < http://www.cartercenter.org/news/documents/doc891.html >.

Darren Kew, ‘“Democrazy, dem go craze, o”: monitoring the 1999 Nigerian elections’, Issue: A Journal of Opinion 27 , 1 (1999), pp. 29–33.

Kew aptly demonstrated the various forms of rigging perpetuated by INEC staff during the 1999 elections. He noted that, in one instance, ‘the presiding officer and the two party agents – one from the APP – were busy thumb-printing as many PDP votes as they could stuff into the ballot box….’ Ibid. , p. 31.

Browne Onuoha, ‘A comparative analysis of general elections in Nigeria’ in Remi Anifowose and Tunde Babawale (eds.), 2003 Elections and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria (Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Lagos, 2003), p. 54.

Section 154 of the 1999 constitution of Nigeria provides for the composition of federal agencies, including INEC, and vests the power of appointment in the President.

J. Shola Omotola, ‘What is this gender talk all about after all? Gender power and politics in contemporary Nigeria’, African Study Monographs 28 , 1 (April 2007), p. 42.

Emmanuel O. Ojo, ‘Vote buying in Nigeria’ in Victor A. O. Adetula (ed.), Money, Politics and Corruption in Nigeria (International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), Abuja, 2006), pp. 105–23; Alade W. Fawole, ‘Voting without choosing: interrogating the crisis of electoral democracy in Nigeria’ in Lumumba-Kasongo (ed.), Liberal Democracy and its Critics in Africa, p. 160.

J. Shola Omotola, ‘The 2003 Nigerian second elections: some comments’, Political Science Review 3 , 1 and 2 (2004), p. 130.

Agbaje and Adejumobi, ‘Do votes count?’, p. 33.

Omotola, ‘The 2003 Nigerian second election’, p. 131.

Kunle Ajayi, ‘The security forces, electoral conducts and the 2003 general elections’, Journal of Social Sciences 13 , 1 (2006), pp. 57–66.

Omotola, ‘The 2003 Nigerian second election’, pp. 132–3; David O. Alabi, ‘2003 elections and the South West’ in Hassan A. Saliu (ed.) Nigeria under Democratic Rule, 1999–2003, Vol. 1 (University Press Plc., Ibadan, 2004), pp. 111–35.

Fatai A. Aremu and J. Shola Omotola, ‘Violence as threats to democracy in Nigeria under the Fourth Republic, 1999–2005’, African and Asian Studies 6 , 1–2 (2007), pp. 53–78; Epele Alafuro, ‘The 2003 elections and the rise of the one party state in Nigeria’ in Godwin Onu and Abubarkar Momoh (eds.), Elections and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria (NPSA, Lagos, 2005), pp. 121–40.

J. Shola Omotola, ‘The limits of election monitoring: Nigeria’s 2003 general election’, Representation 42 , 2 (2006), pp. 157–67; Transition Monitoring Group, Do the Votes Count? Final Report of the 2003 General Elections by the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG, Lagos, 2003).

Said Adejomobi, ‘When votes do not count: the 2007 general elections in Nigeria’, News from Nordic African Institute , 2, (May 2007), pp. 14–5.

Mike Unger, ‘Panel analyses upcoming Nigerian elections’, American Weekly: American University’s News Paper, 13 February 2007, p. 1.

See Adejumobi, ‘When votes do not count’, pp. 14–5.

See Daniel Omoweh and Dirk van den Boom, Blocked Democracy in Africa: Experiment with democratization in Nigeria, 1999–2003 (Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Abuja, 2005), pp. 41–59.

For a comprehensive review of the reports of local and international observers, see Paul F. Adebayo and Shola J. Omotola, ‘Public perception of the 2007 Nigeria’s general elections’, Journal of African Elections 6 , 2 (2007), pp. 201–16.

E. Remi Aiyede, ‘Electoral laws and the 2007 elections in Nigeria’, Journal of African Elections 6 , 2 (2007), p. 50.

J. Shola Omotola, ‘“Garrison” democracy in Nigeria: the 2007 general elections and the prospects of democratic consolidation’, Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 47, 2 (2009), pp. 195–221.

See Kayode Lawal, ‘2007 elections: courts receive 6,180 cases’, The Herald (Ilorin, 12 May 2008), pp. 1 and 23.

J. Shola Omotola, ‘Godfathers and the 2007 Nigeria’s general elections’, Journal of African Elections 6 , 2 (2007), pp. 147–8.

See IFES, A Nigerian Perspective on the 2007 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections Results from Pre- and post-Election Surveys (International Foundation for Electoral Systems, Abuja, 2007).

Aiyede, ‘Electoral laws’ p. 53.

Onuoha, ‘The electoral machine’, p. 39.

Agbaje and Adejumobi, ‘Do votes count?’, p. 30.

Author notes

Nigeria is gearing up for what will most certainly be a very exciting round of elections in the coming year. The legal environment for the 2011 elections is framed by the 2010 Electoral Act, harmonized (similar to a U.S. conference report) several weeks ago by the National Assembly. The new Act introduces many very significant amendments not least among which is the requirement that electoral results to be declared at the polling unit and at the ward level; this makes good on President Jonathan's promise to audiences in Washington, D.C. and in Nigeria when he said this reform is necessary to improve the integrity of the elections by making it much more difficult for elections to be stolen through the tabulation process. For a more complete analysis of the coming Nigerian elections as well as a side-by-side comparison of the 2006 and 2010 electoral laws, please our article: http://carllevan.com/2010/09/nigerias-2011-elections- obstacles-and-opportunities/comment-page-1/#comment-178 on scholarly blog by Dr. Carl LeVan; a professor of African politics and comparative political theory at American University.

Conflict of Interest:

None declared

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THE DIALECTICS OF ETHNO-RELIGIOUS VOTING BEHAVIOUR IN NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: AN EXPOSITORY ANALYSIS

2021, International Journal of Innovation Scientific Research and Review

A presidential election is an expedient process for the democratization of the office of the Executive President. It therefore represents a national-conscious exercise fundamental for governance and development. This paper examines the trends of voting behaviour in presidential elections of a plural democratizing polity, Nigeria. In reference to the methodology of this discourse, the paper explored the relevance of primary and secondary sources of data collection and, content-analyzed events and issues as regards identity politics and presidential elections in Nigeria. This discourse adopted the theory of Marxian historical dialectical materialism to establish that voter enthusiasm and preference of Nigeria electorate is a function of ethno-religious identity driven by the motive of materialism nurtured and advanced by the history of alienation and competition among the elite ethnic nationalities in fervent struggle for national power and resources. Hence, the discourse explicitly revealed that the dialectics of ethno-religious voting behaviour in 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections varied in form and intensity critical for the permutation of 2023 presidential election. In credence to these findings, the discourse recommends for issue-based voting behaviour, advocacy for national consciousness among other measures imperative for visionary leadership for national transformation.

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Chibuike Madubuegwu

Identity politics is susceptible to developing plural democracies. Its intensity embellishes in ethno-religious voting orientation in sensitive national elections. On this premise, this discourse argued that ethno-religious voting behaviour was visible in 2011 and 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria. In a methodological sense, the design of the discourse is qualitative in secondary and textual methods of data collection and analysis. The sociological model of voting behaviour was applied to further establish that voter preference is a function of cleavage mobilization and enthusiasm in pursuit of identity interests. The discourse in underscoring the varied intensity of the functionality of ethno-religious voting behaviour in the two successive elections, revealed that the incumbent candidate of PDP won 16 states in the South and 7 in the North and FCT while the frontline opponent candidate of CPC secured a landslide victory in 12 states in the North in 2011 presidential election that witnessed 53.7 percent voter turnout of 73.5 million registered voters occasioned with post-presidential election violence in the North. In 2015 presidential election, the PDP candidate won 12 states in the South and 3 states in the North and FCT while frontline opponent candidate won 16 states in the North and 5 in the South in voter turnout of 43.65 percent from 68.8 million registered voters. These realities amid adverse effects on governance and national development resonates the need for national advocacy, new orientation among other fundamentals to entrench sense of nationhood in the democratization of Nigerian presidential elections.

Journal of Policy and Development Studies

Scholars have written extensively on the imperatives of identity consciousness on voting behaviour of Nigerians in presidential politics and elections. However, there are gaps in depth analysis of ethno-religious identity to explain what inform voter turnout and voting choice of Nigerians across six regions of the federation in three presidential election cycles. In other words, this discourse examines the reality or illusion of ethno-religious identity in voting behaviour of Nigerians in 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections from a cross sectional analysis. The methodology of this discourse is exploratory research design with emphasis on documentary and Key Informant interview as sources of data collection. Thus, the sample size of 36 Key Informants were selected from the six regions of the federation through purposiverandom sampling procedure and interviewed in face-to-face interaction, telephone communication, Focus Group Discussion etc where responses and empirical data gathered were documented, presented and content-analyzed. The study therefore revealed that many Nigeria voters are most often enthused to participate and vote for frontline candidates and running mates who shared their ethno-religious background amid other intervened influencing factors. Again, there were peculiarities of identity consciousness in voting behaviour across regions of ethno-religious backgrounds in Nigeria presidential elections. The discourse therefore suggest for sense of nationhood, advocacy for national rebirth among other fundamentals to mitigate intense euphoria of ethno-religious consciousness and tensions in power transition.

Socialscientia Journal of the Social Sciences and Humanities

A cursory look at the presidential election in a multi-cleavage country like Nigeria, often reveals a fascinating process replete with identity consciousness and euphoria. Scholarly review illuminates obvious gaps in issues and sentiments of voter environment to establish the functionality of ethnoreligious identity in voting behaviour of Nigerians in presidential elections. This study therefore examines issues underlying ethno-religious identity in the voter environments of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections in Nigeria. The methodology of this discourse is exploratory research design with emphasis on documentary and Key Informant interview as sources of data collection. Thus, sample size of 36 Key Informants were selected from the six regions of the federation through purposive-random sampling procedure and interviewed in face-to-face interaction, telephone communication, Focus Group Discussion etc where responses and empirical data gathered were documented, presented and content-analyzed. The study revealed that voter environments of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections were immersed in varied scale and intensity of ethno-religious consciousness among millions of Nigeria voters which stemmed from the identity background of candidates of frontline political parties. It therefore concluded that many Nigerians are very conscious and interested in the ethno-religious identities of candidates of frontline political parties in a presidential election amid other issues or narratives. Hence, this study therefore recommends citizens' interest in national governance expectations, legitimization of zoning principle, strict enforcement of presidential campaign guidelines amid other fundamentals in effort to strengthen Nigeria's electoral democracy.

Three presidential election cycles in Nigeria's recent history of power transition were respectively replete with interesting trends and dynamics. One of the remarkable was the euphoria of identity consciousness shared in these polls. This discourse therefore examines outcome of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections with the aim to establish the illusion or reality of ethno-religious voting pattern in government appointments. The methodology of the study is qualitative exploratory design which underscored the import of documentary source and Key Informant Interview (KII) or Process Tracing PT which involves conducting personal interviews and Focus Group Discussion, FGD with knowledgeable person as procedures for data collection. The data collected were textually analyzed and showed a significant correlation between ethno-religious voting pattern of Nigerians and lopsided government appointments after 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections although in different scale. From the findings,

Osah Goodnews

The problems of Nigeria‘s democratic setting are enormous and always characterized by factors that have fundamentally stifled the quest of her democracy. Since the 1960‘s, politics of identity cum ethnic coloration has become one of the banes ofpolitics in Nigeria. The conduct of elections over the years has led to her not being able to produce credible results due to politics of identity. One wonders if Nigeria is really a democratic nation; or does voting alone imply adoption of democratic tenets? To answer this question, this article interrogated the challenges of ethnic identity towards the enthronement of democracy. Thus, its literatures focused on democracy, elections, political culture and ethnic identity. The study is descriptive in nature and adopted identity politics as its theoretical framework. Findings revealed that cultural affiliation plays major role in Nigeria‘s democracy, and this has brought setback towards the emergence of a focus driven leader. It is equally found out that politics of identity as far as Nigeria‘s democracy is concerned is unhealthy as it is prone to unequal distribution of wealth which most time aggravates political crises. Hence, this paper recommends the need to liberalize Nigeria‘s democracy where everyone has equal right to vote and be voted for without any threat; also, where every citizen embraces with passion, the Nigeria‘s projects as against cultural and ethnic acculturation. Key Words: Democracy, Political Dispute, Elite circulation, Political Identity.

Anthony Egobueze

The need for political stability and virile democratic culture in Nigeria is a great concern to all Nigerians and the international community. Since the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1999, several elections have been conducted, but the 2015 election is very significant to us because it exposed the unflinching role of ethnicity and religion in the voting behaviour of different segments of our society. We adopted Rational Choice Theory as our conceptual framework. This paper interrogates the influence of ethnicity and religion in the voting behaviour of the Nigerian electorates and recommends that voting behaviour should be based on party ideology and competence and reputation of the candidates and not ethnicity and religion.

ICRPC Journal of Institute for Crisis Resolution, Peace building and Conciliation

Austin Uchegbu

The politics of religion, region and ethnicity have permeated Nigeria's political landscape to the detriment of social relations, voting pattern and legitimate democracy. This necessitates this study, which employed the exploratory, qualitative research design, using thematic analysis to analyze data collected from secondary sources of published and unpublished articles, journals and online resources. The history of voting pattern in Nigeria has shown that since the First Republic, religion, region and ethnicity have been the influencing factor in determining the voting pattern in Nigeria. Religion, region and ethnic cleavages have remained an integral part of political actions, with political parties/leaders and their supporters, being ruled by these factors. Politicians and adherents of religious movements; regional and ethnic groups have used religion, regional and ethnic platforms to achieve their political ambitions, thereby promoting ethno-religious groupism in Nigeria. The study concludes that the political behaviour of the electorates and voting pattern, to a large extent is determined by their religious affiliation, ethnicity, regionalism and other issue-based politics. The study recommends that an enabling platform should be created to enable both the minority and majority ethnic groups to produce the President of Nigeria, by implementing the recommendation of 2014 Constitutional conference on the rotation of the office of the President among the six geo-political zones; this will eliminate the voting pattern influenced by religion, region and ethnic differences.

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Idrees Mahmud Gana

This paper explores ethno-religious identity and its impact on the struggles for democratic consolidation in Nigeria's fourth republic. This study delves into the intricate dynamics of ethnoreligious identity and its profound influence on the arduous path of democratic consolidation in Nigeria's Fourth Republic. Nigeria, characterized by its rich diversity of ethnic and religious groups, has grappled with the complexities of harnessing this diversity for democratic growth. Theoretically, the paper adopted the conflict trap. The paper employed a secondary method of data collection and analysis based on the collection of data from books, journals, and web-based materials, among others. The results revealed that ethnoreligious identities contribute to the nation's unique character by providing a source of cultural richness and diversity. They also give people a sense of belonging and identity. When these identities, however, become politicized and instrumentalized, they can pose serious threats to democratic consolidation. The study concludes that ethno-religious identity is an integral part of Nigeria's social fabric and that its politicization can pose significant challenges to democratic consolidation. Addressing these challenges requires a multifaceted approach that promotes inclusive governance, civic education, and responsible leadership. Ultimately, a united and democratic Nigeria can thrive by embracing its diversity while transcending the divisive aspects of ethno-religious identity politics.

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Presidential elections in Nigeria: alarm over violence and security likely to drive vote

PhD, Research Fellow at IFRA-Nigéria, University of Ibadan

Research associate NigeriaWatch & IFRA-Nigeria, Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD)

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With Nigeria’s presidential elections slated for Saturday 25 February, the country’s independent electoral commission’s offices have suffered several attacks in recent weeks. Concerns over security have been such that its head, Mahmood Yakubu, expressed doubts on 9 January whether the elections could take place.

Already, in early November, the US embassy had decided to repatriate its “non-essential” diplomatic personnel from the federal capital, Abuja, following a security briefing that was kept confidential. The move prompted a good number of diplomats and businessmen to flee at the time. In turn, the Nigerian press’ reaction ranged from criticism of Washington to alarmist views about rising violence .

Security, once again, is at the heart of the political debate in Africa’s most populous country .

The three main candidates

Incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari, a retired general now in his 80s, was elected in 2015 and re-elected in 2019 on the twin promises of ending corruption and insecurity in the country.

His record in office is being defended by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, candidate of Buhari’s party, the All Progressive Congress (APC). Officially 70 years old, Tinubu is the former governor of Lagos (1999-2007), whose corruption cases made headlines in the 1990s. There are 18 candidates in total, and Tinubu’s main opponent is Abubakar Atiku, 76, of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), in power between 1999 and 2015. For the first eight years of that period, Atiku was vice president. Peter Obi of the Labour Party, 61, has a measure of momentum and enjoys support among the younger generation, dubbed the “Obidient” . As they stand, the polls currently available don’t seem particularly reliable.

In Nigeria, there is an unspoken rule that a northern (predominantly Muslim) president should be succeeded by a southern (predominantly Christian) president. This alternation, which has been in place for 24 years, would mean that the president elected in 2023 would be from the south and Christian.

However, the southern candidate, Tinubu, is a Muslim, as are his main northern opponent, Atiku, and the current president, Buhari. Tinubu, has a Muslim running mate, forming a “Muslim-Muslim” ticket. Atiku, on the other hand, is running with a southern Christian. The candidacy of the southern Christian Peter Obi, whose running mate is Muslim, would look ideal on paper if he were not also Igbo, an ethnic group from the South-East (15 to 18% of the total population of the country), sometimes associated with the ex-secessionists of Biafra . How, then, will Nigerians react to this break with traditional patterns?

Lessons from past elections

Since independence in 1960 , Nigeria’s political history has been marked by alternating periods of “republican” rule and autocracies often installed through military coups. The current political system – the fourth republic – will have its seventh consecutive presidential election in February.

In Nigerian history, electoral periods tend to be marred by instability and violence. While the first election in 1999 was conducted peacefully, President Obasanjo’s re-election in 2003 was more eventful , with many observers describing it as fraudulent .

Between 2007 and 2022, there were more than 3,000 election-related deaths, according to Nigeria Watch . However, no pattern holds true from one election to the next . For example, in the 2007 elections which EU observers considered “unreliable” , the violence was mainly caused by intra-party disputes for resources and positions, particularly within the PDP. In 2011, more violence broke out after the vote , especially following the results obtained by then-incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) in the north, which appeared to favour his opponent and future president, Muhammadu Buhari.

In 2015, Buhari’s victory as leader of the APC – whose broom logo embodies the ambition to clean up the country after 16 years of PDP rule – was also followed by violence, again in the north. The 2019 election was less violent, although local clashes took place. The election was then postponed due to delays in the delivery of election materials.

This year, the vote is expected to be partly electronic, which raises new challenges. With the country’s notoriously unreliable electrical system , polling stations will have to rely on petrol-powered generators. And given refined fuels are running short , it is possible that the 2023 election will be postponed .

Insecurity as a key issue

Alongside inflation and the cost of living, insecurity is one of the subjects most dealt with by the candidates of the various parties.

Kidnappings, robberies and other criminal acts are frequent, and hundreds of deaths per year are caused by terrorist violence in the north, conflicts over territorial resources in the centre, and oil in the south .

The three main candidates propose more or less the same thing: more police and military personnel, and more use of technology.

There are two problems with these proposals. First, the idea of increasing both numbers and budgets is not new. Under Buhari, the military budget has increased significantly , from 4 trillion to 16 trillion Naira (N), or about N30 billion, from the last year of Goodluck Jonathan’s five-year term to Buhari’s. However, this money have failed to materialise on the ground after middlemen diverted some of it .

Second, it is not even certain that increasing the number of police or military personnel will reduce insecurity. On the one hand, increasing the number of police officers will presumably lead to an increase in arrests and thus boost crime statistics. On the other hand, police officers and military personnel are among the first perpetrators of violence .

While police violence has long been decried, with almost every Nigerian having a personal story to tell, it has attracted particular attention in 2020. Faced with repeated and unpunished abuses by a police unit, Nigerian youths took to the streets, giving rise to the #EndSARS movement , named after the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS). At least 200 protesters lost their lives to the cause of more peaceful forces, prompting the disbanding of the brigade.

As for the military, they have caused more deaths than the Boko Haram terrorists they’re tasked with fighting. According to Nigeria Watch , armed forces are responsible for 55% of the victims of the conflict spanning between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2019. This is due to a lack of discernment in their actions, which are sometimes more akin to retaliation than targeted actions, as well as poorly thought out aerial bombing .

Corruption, the lack of training within the police, as well cooperation between the police and the military, partly explain the country’s critical security situation. It is not certain that boosting budgets or providing new equipment to these personnel will improve the situation.

What to expect from the 2023 elections?

The two main candidates, political veterans in their 70s, are not particularly popular. Nigerians seem resigned in advance, making abstention and apathy the likely winners of the election this year.

As the researcher Corentin Cohen reminds us, however, electoral violence in Nigeria is not limited to the election period itself . It can appear as early as the party primaries, and extend right through the proclamation of the results. Thus even if there is no pattern of electoral violence, the security situation will be closely watched at least until the transition at the end of May 2023.

This article was originally published in French

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Electoral Corruption in Nigeria: A Study of the 2019 General Elections

This Report is the outcome of research undertaken to understand the drivers and the implications of two forms of electoral corruption, vote-buying and the abuse of the power of incumbency, in Nigeria, and to offer recommendations to diminish their salience as contributory factors in the distortion of competitive party and electoral politics in the country. The broader objective is that the data-based analysis, findings, and recommendations for political and electoral reform in the Report will help to generate policy advocacy, action and reform to diminish the unwholesome impact of the two forms of electoral corruption on the conduct of general elections in Nigeria. Hopefully, it will strengthen electoral integrity and the protection of the mandate of the electorate more firmly and sustainably and brighten the conditions and prospects for good governance in the country substantially. Unless the toxic economic, political and socio-economic environment that inhibits good governance in the country is sanitized, democratic elections cannot serve the positive function of democratic consolidation in the country. With this in view, the main objective of the study was to find out and analyze the experience and perceptions of the two forms of electoral corruption during the 2019 presidential and governorship, by a randomly stratified sampled population of voters in the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria, and in two states in each of the six geopolitical zones of the Nigerian Federation.

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Electoral malpractices in Nigeria: causes, effects, and solutions

Elections are part of any democratic process. Nigeria is a democratic country; however, local politicians like to play ‘dirty’ games. What are electoral malpractices in Nigeria? Is it possible to prevent any manipulations and make the process completely free and fair? Let us talk about the causes and effects of this popular phenomenon popularly called ‘rigging.’

Fair elections have become like fairy tales in Nigeria. Free elections are also something many citizens do not believe in. This happens not just in Nigeria but also in different other ‘young’ democracies.

What are the causes of this problem? How to understand the term? Is there something you can personally do to prevent the bad practices in your city or state? So many interesting questions are truly worth your attention.

What is electoral malpractice?

This term is used to describe all dishonest and fraud activities that interfere with the democratic ‘nature’ of election.

10 ways of fighting and reducing political apathy in Nigeria

The fraud practices during elections are common in countries with political apathy, instability, lack of political awareness and high poverty rate.

Elections in Nigeria

All local elections are surrounded by rumors about unfairness and malpractices. The most commonly used examples of ‘bad’ activities that take place before, during, and right after elections include the following:

• Illegal usage of ballot boxes
• Illegal printing of voter’s cards
• Results falsification
• Stuffing ballot boxes with fake ballot papers votes
• Manipulations with registration of voters

Rumors about manipulations and malpractices have been around Nigerian elections even since 1959. This is the problem in many countries globally.

Causes of electoral malpractice

Everything that happens, good or bad, has a cause. There are numerous factors that influence elections in Nigeria.

Economic problems

Numerous economic issues and instability make people anxious about their future. Some of them are eager to join the party and start a political career to build their personal financial ‘nest’ and eat their part of the national cake. They are only thinking about personal wealth. They have no desire to help the nation change for better and the economy to develop.

What are the factors that lead to political apathy in Nigeria?

High poverty rate

It is not a secret that millions of Nigerians are poor. Poverty, low salaries, unemployment - such situation is used by politicians who make their promises and never keep their words. Poverty and corruption are real ‘friends’ and are extremely loved by politicians. People who cannot afford food are willing to trade their vote for bread, fruit, and cereals or even money.

READ ALSO: Economic problems in Nigeria today and solution

Weak courts

Even with all the rumors going around the fraud during elections, the weak court system does not help much with punishments. No justice only makes the problems worth. When it is easy to get away with lies and fraud, there is a huge temptation to stay unfair and bring no real democratic changes to the country.

Temporary staff problem

It is cheaper to hire a temporary team to work during elections. On one hand, this is a great solution as it helps to save Nigerian money. On the other hand, temporary people can be influenced by the fraudulent elements because, they most likely do not have the level of sense of responsibility and service that someone who has been working in the electoral commission for 30 years would have.

How Nigerian politicians rig elections in 10 ways

Such people sometimes feel the need to quickly make some extra cash during elections, since they'll go back to their joblessness once elections are over.

No discipline

There is little or no discipline in different spheres. There are problems with infrastructure, logistics, security staff, and low electoral interest among Nigerians.

How can electoral malpractices can be prevented in Nigeria?

Only the major changes in minds, thoughts and strong desire for positive and democratic future can make the difference. It also takes a long time and hard work to reduce and prevent malpractices during the elections. Here are some ideas what can be done to improve everything.

Strict rules for everyone

Fraud activities can be decreased with high fees and real responsibility. Politicians who will be punished financially or even end up in prison and finish their career will think twice before organizing any manipulations. Election teams and all staff involved in the processes of voters registration, votes counting and announcing the results will also be responsible if they really fear the penalties.

Top 5 causes of the current religious crisis in Nigeria and possible solutions

Training and educational programs can help raise the political awareness, get professionals among electoral staff and political parties and explain to citizens how important each voice is. Only political training can describe the importance and consequences of what can be done, and what is taboo.

The Nigerian government has to perform reforms. It is necessary to figure out the problems in the electoral system and present solutions for them. Existing system needs to be improved. It requires more transparency, better control, and attention from the public.

These are some of the changes that can minimize the electoral malpractices. Nigerians can improve the electoral experience. Democratic countries are constantly working on improvements in different spheres of life. It takes time but, it can be done.

READ ALSO: Forms of political apathy in Nigeria

Source: Legit.ng

Adrianna Simwa (Lifestyle writer) Adrianna Simwa is a content writer at Legit.ng where she has worked since mid-2022. She has written for many periodicals on a variety of subjects, including news, celebrities, and lifestyle, for more than three years. She has worked for The Hoth, The Standard Group and Triple P Media. Adrianna graduated from Nairobi University with a Bachelor of Fine Arts (BFA) in 2020. In 2023, Simwa finished the AFP course on Digital Investigation Techniques. You can reach her through her email: [email protected]

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Youth Political Participation in Nigeria: A Theoretical Synthesis

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INSECURITY IN NIGERIA: GENESIS, CONSEQUENCES AND PANACEA

Insecurity is one of, if not the most glaring and much talked about thing in Nigeria today. Acts of insecurity occur on daily basis throughout the country. Right thinking and sane Nigerians are really concerned about this ugly trend. This paper digs into the root causes of insecurity in Nigeria, its effects on the country and proffers/suggests ways out of this nightmare. The causes amongst so many include fundamentally illiteracy, unemployment/joblessness, poor leadership, porous nature of our boarders, proliferation of arms, non-compliance with the rule of law. The effects are also there – underdevelopment, poverty, hunger, insurgency, militancy, youth restiveness, kidnapping, armed robbery, fear, drug abuse, political thuggery, etc. As part of the way out of this, this paper suggests that ‘career’ (technical) education be emphasized rather than the ‘degree’ (non-technical) education. Civics as a subject should be restored in the primary school curriculum; the country be restructured as demanded by most of the populace, community policing introduced and supported; rule of law and quality leadership firmly established and spirit of nationalism enshrined in the minds of the citizenry.

Article visualizations:

Achebe, C. (1983). The Trouble with Nigeria, Fourth Dimension Publishers, Nigeria.

Achumba, I. C. et al. (2013). Security Challenges in Nigeria and the Implications for Business Activities and Sustainable Development, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, Vol. 4, No. 2.

Adagba, O. et al. (2012). Activities of Boko Haram and Insecurity Question in Nigeria, Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review, Vol. 1, No. 9.

Adele, J. (1985). Federalism, the Constitutional State and Ethnic Conflict in Nigeria. The Journal of Federalism, 15 (1).

Adeola, G. L. & Oluyemi, F. (2012). The Political and Security Implications of Cross Border Migration between Nigeria and Her Francophone Neighbours, Internal Journal of social Science Tomorrow, Vol. 1, No. 3.

Akin Ibidapo-Obe (2008). The Utility of Close-Circuit Television (CCTV) in Intelligence Gathering by Security Operatives in Nigeria. Proceedings of Conference on Intelligent security, Lagos.

Aliyu, A. (1998). Nigeria Economic Breakthrough: The Abacha Strategies. Abuja: The Family Economic Advancement Programme.

Campbell, A. J. (2009). Underdevelopment and Development Challenges in Nigeria. Lagos. Mac Evans Publishers.

Egbefo, D. O. & Salihu, H. A. (2014). Internal Security Crisis in Nigeria: Causes, Types, Effects and Solutions in Internal Journal of Arts and Humanities (IJAH), Vol.3, no. 4.

Eghosa, E. O. (1988). The Complexities of Nigerian Federal Character and the Inadequacies of the Federal Character Principle in Nigeria. Journal Of Ethnic Studies, 16 (5).

Ewetan, O. O. & Ese, U. (2014). Insecurity and Socio-Economic Development in Nigeria, Journal of Sustainable Development Studies. Vol. 5 No. 1.

Hazen, J. M. & Horner, J. (2007). Small Arms, Armed Violence, and Insecurity in Nigeria: The Niger Delta in Perspective, Switzerland: Small Arms Survey.

Igbuzor, O. (2011). Peace and Security Education: A Critical Factor for Sustainable Peace and National Development, International Journal of Peace and Development Studies. Vol. 2 (1).

Kufor, J. (2012). Nigeria: Imbalanced Development Causes Insecurity in Nigeria, This Day Newspaper, Lagos.

Nwagboso, C. I. (2012). Security Challenges and Economy of Nigerian State (2007-2011), American International journal of Contemporary Research, Vol. 2 No. 6.

Nwanegbo, C. J. & Odigbo, J. (2013). Security and National Development in Nigeria: The threat of Boko Haram. Retrieved 5.10.2018 from www.ijhssnet.com/.../vol.../29.pdf.

Nweke, P. O. & Nwachukwu, T. S. (2014). National Security Issues and Challenges in Nigeria: Which Way forward in International Journal of Youth Empowerment and Entrepreneurship Development, Vol. 1, Issue 1.

Oche, O. (2001). Democratization and the Management of African Security. In Akindele, R. and Ate, B. (eds) Nigerian Journal of international affairs, Lagos, 13 (1).

Ojukwu, C. (1989). Because I am Involved, Spectrum Book Ltd, Ibadan- Nigeria.

Omede, J. (2012). Reformatting Nigerian Secondary and Post-Secondary education to meet unemployment and security challenges in Nigeria in the 21st century. Research Journal in Organizational Psychology and Educational studies (RJOPES). Available at http://www.emergingresource.org

Onifade, C. et al. (2013). Addressing the Insecurity Challenge in Nigeria: The Imperative of Moral Values and Virtue Ethics, Global Journal Of Human Social Science Political Science, Vol.13 Issue 2.

Soludo, C. C. (2018). The Political Economy of Restructuring the Nigerian Federation. The Sun Newspaper, 2nd August 2018.

United Nations (1998). https://www.tolerance.org>sites>default>files.tt_poverty_hl.

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ANALYSIS: Nigerian youths and what the Future holds ahead of 2023

As the 2023 elections approach, two major political aspirants have come out openly to declare their interests. The two individuals, Bola Tinubu; National Leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar; an ex-Vice President of Nigeria, are not new in the country’s politics.

Tinubu played a huge role in taking South-west politics to the Federal level from the days of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) to the now ruling APC and its common knowledge that he has been eyeing number 1 seat in the country.

He has built a formidable force across Southwest states and seen by his admirers as a trait of a great leader whose judgment on national issues should be respected, particularly for his role in ensuring that President Muhammadu Buhari came to power in 2015 and 2019 respectively. .

POLITICS NIGERIA reported that Atiku on the other hand has had a strong aspiration to lead Nigeria since his first outing in 1992 when he contested alongside Moshood Kashimawo Abiola for the presidential ticket of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). He has repeatedly contested and has the followership to give the APC a good fight in the general elections.

The two major contestants currently in PDP and APC are certainly not interested in allowing younger ones to take charge.

This was made public at the palace of Oba Lamidi Adeyemi, the Alaafin of Oyo, when Tinubu openly said Nigerian youths would only lead the country after he had fulfilled his lifelong ambition of ruling the country as a president.

“You won’t allow the elderly ones to pass and you haven’t become president. What if you become president, will you chase us out of town? You will grow old and become president. But I will become the president first.” the 69-year-old politician said.

For Atiku, the youths need to compete with his contemporaries if they really want to contest in the 2023 elections. He made this position during a visit to former President Olusegun Obasanjo at his Abeokuta residence.

Speaking with a straight face said, “let the youths compete if they want power.”

Long reign of disbelief in youths

For years now, Nigerian leaders have not seen the youths in a position that could place them in the drivers’ seats. The incumbent President, Muhammadu Buhari in 2018 said Nigerian youths are lazy.

“More than 60 per cent of the population is below 30, a lot of them haven’t been to school and they are claiming that Nigeria is an oil producing country, therefore, they should sit and do nothing, and get housing, healthcare, education free,” he said.

In an interview with the BBC Hausa in 2010, Ibrahim Babangida, ex-military president said youths are not capable of leading Nigeria. For him, “a country like Nigeria cannot be ruled by people without experience.”

Aside from these individuals, many others have argued that young Nigerians prefer to rant on social media, particularly on Twitter than taking proactive steps to lead the country. Political pundits have also said 2023 does not appear like the year for the youths and if there would be change, they should start preparing now ahead of the 2027 elections.

Money as hindrance?

In the true sense of it, the APC and the PDP are the two major parties in the country and except there is a miracle, the two parties will continue to produce who governs Nigeria.

The danger attached to this is that despite the fact that the law provides that a 35-year-old person can run, the two major parties in the country have failed to do a review of nomination form fees for office seekers to deepen inclusion, and strengthen national democracy.

The gubernatorial expression of interest and nomination form sold for N1 million and N20 million respectively in the PDP in 2019. The party charged N12 million for both the expression of interest and nomination form for the Office of the President, N3.5million for Senate, N2.5million for House of Representatives, and N600,000 for the House of Assembly.

In APC, it sold expressions of interest for N5 million and N40 million for nomination form for the Office of President, N7 million for Senate, N3.5million for House of Representatives, and N850,000, for the House of Assembly.

“We should be looking for independent youths that will not go cap in hand to beg the old politicians to lend them the required funds. No old politician will bankroll the youths with his funds to retire him. If only the youths can reduce the money they spend on frivolities like clubbing and merriments, buying nomination forms and even funding their elections will not be a problem. They need to be independent minded if they will stand the chance to wrest power from the old politicians, former spokesperson of the APC, Yekini Nabena, opined.

In reaction to this, a veteran musician, Eedris Abdulkareem, has warned Nigerian youths to avoid joining the APC and the PDP.

“If you’re a youth and ready to contest for any position in 2023 please come out. The most important thing is to avoid the All Progressives Party, APC. Come out for the presidency , the House of Representatives just like Sowore, Yul Edochie,” he recently said in a video posted on Instagram.

As the agitation for the inclusion of youth in the governance of Nigeria continues to gain relevance, Omoyele Sowore, has expressed his views on how it could be achieved. He said “what we have now are young people who are mostly hungry, not for relevance and power but for picking up crumbs from the table of people who sometimes are not even as intelligent as they are.”

“Youths are the leaders of tomorrow”

The above quote has become a gospel without the truth in Nigeria. This has been the slogan since 1960 and the tomorrow that youths are expected to lead is yet to come. And the cycle goes on and on.

To make an impact in the forthcoming general election, there is a need to create innovative ideas that the electorate can buy into, building alliances/coalitions with various pressure groups and being ecumenical in movement with already existing coalitions or political parties.

To ensure youths get to power, they must take advantage of their numerical strength and queue behind a candidate that will make a difference in their lives. More than half of all voters, 51.1 percent, are between 18 and 35, according to INEC. Hence, 2023 is a year to form a critical mass as witnessed during the #EndSARS protest and be a part of the decision on who becomes next president of the country.

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One comment.

My only consternation from the piece bugs down on what could be defined as the age of a youth. All past heads of Nigerian states were below the age of 50 when they governed, before the second coming of the Otta brute in 1999. Including, I am not sure the supposed doctor of Zoology was above 50 years of age when he assumed the leadership of the states of Nigeria.

WHAT PART OF THE CONSTITUTION PRECLUDES THE YOUTHS FROM ASPIRING TO THE HIGHEST OFFICE IN THE NIGERIAN LAND?

What are the cravings for a special breed status for the youths all about? Anybody who wish the office should go out and work for it. It should not be given to any age group on a platter.

““Youths are the leaders of tomorrow”.

TIME TO DISCARD AND DUST THE ABOVE APHORISM IN RELATION TO THE NIGERIAN YOUTHS. SHOULD Yahoo BOYS LAY CLAIMS TO THE PRESIDENCY, ALSO OR SHOULD THEY BE CONSIDERED AS “leaders of tomorrow”?

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My Country Nigeria Essay 150 To 200 Words

Nigeria fondly referred to as the “Giant of Africa,” is a country steeped in vibrant cultures, teeming with hardworking citizens, and abundantly blessed with natural resources. Nestled in the heart of West Africa, Nigeria, with an estimated population of over 200 million people, stands as the most populous country in Africa. This population comprises a diverse assembly of over 270 ethnic groups, each with its own rich cultural heritage and language.

Table of Contents

Reflections on My Country Nigeria: An Essay on the Giant of Africa

A land of diversity and unity.

Despite the striking cultural differences, Nigeria is a symbol of unity in diversity. From the Igbo’s entrepreneurial spirit in the East to the Yoruba’s artistic prowess in the West, and from the Fulani’s pastoral life in the North to the Niger Delta’s oil-rich South, the country pulsates with a unique rhythm that forms the collective Nigerian identity.

A Thriving Hub of Resources and Opportunities

Nigeria’s affluence is not only a result of its populous and diverse citizenry but also its bountiful natural resources. Holding the position as Africa’s premier oil producing nation, Nigeria’s prodigious oil reservoirs establish it as a crucial contributor to the international oil market. Moreover, the country is blessed with rich, arable lands, nurturing an agricultural community and fueling a flourishing farm-based economy.A Nation of Resilient Individuals

Despite the challenges faced, such as economic instability and security issues, the Nigerian spirit remains unbowed. Nigerians are renowned for their resilience, tenacity, and indomitable spirit. The nation is a breeding ground for innovation, creativity, and entrepreneurial pursuits, all driven by an unwavering desire for progress.

Nigeria, an Epicenter of Artistic Excellence

Nigeria also shines brightly on the global map for its contributions to arts and culture. With internationally acclaimed musicians, filmmakers, and authors, Nigeria’s entertainment industry is a testament to its artistic brilliance.

In Conclusion

Despite its challenges, Nigeria stands unparalleled in its cultural richness, human resourcefulness, and natural bounty. The ever-resilient Nigerians, with their infectious optimism and relentless pursuit of prosperity, make the country a vibrant and dynamic force in Africa and the world at large. In the words of our national anthem, “the labor of our heroes past shall never be in vain.” As a proud Nigerian student, I believe in the beauty, strength, and future of my beloved country, Nigeria.

Hello! Welcome to my Blog StudyParagraphs.co. My name is Angelina. I am a college professor. I love reading writing for kids students. This blog is full with valuable knowledge for all class students. Thank you for reading my articles.

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Essay on Nigeria My Country

Students are often asked to write an essay on Nigeria My Country in their schools and colleges. And if you’re also looking for the same, we have created 100-word, 250-word, and 500-word essays on the topic.

Let’s take a look…

100 Words Essay on Nigeria My Country

Introduction to nigeria.

Nigeria is a country in West Africa. It is known for its rich culture and many languages. The land has forests, mountains, and rivers. Many people live in Nigeria, making it Africa’s most populated country.

Nigerian Culture

The culture in Nigeria is colorful. People enjoy music, dance, and art. They celebrate festivals with joy. Clothing is often bright and beautiful. Nigerian food is tasty and includes rice, soups, and spices.

Places in Nigeria

Nigeria has exciting places to see. There are big cities like Lagos and natural spots like the Zuma Rock. Visitors like to see the wildlife and markets too.

Nigeria faces some problems. Not all children can go to school, and keeping the environment clean is tough. Leaders are working to solve these issues.

Nigeria is a country with friendly people and a strong spirit. It is full of life and has a future full of promise. It is a place many call home with pride.

250 Words Essay on Nigeria My Country

Nigeria is a country in West Africa. It’s known for its colorful culture, rich history, and natural beauty. With over 200 million people, it’s the most populous country in Africa and the seventh in the world.

Land and Nature

The land in Nigeria is very diverse. There are sandy beaches, large rivers, and even forests. The country also has a lot of wildlife, including elephants and lions. Nigeria’s weather is mostly hot since it’s close to the equator, but it also has rainy and dry seasons.

Culture and People

Nigeria is home to many different groups of people. Each group has its own language, traditions, and festivals. Music and dance are very important in Nigerian culture. The country is famous for its Nollywood film industry, which is one of the largest in the world.

Nigeria has a lot of natural resources like oil and gas. These resources play a big role in its economy. Agriculture is also important; many people farm products like cocoa and peanuts.

Nigeria faces some challenges, such as making sure everyone has enough food and access to education. The country is working to solve these problems and make life better for its people.

500 Words Essay on Nigeria My Country

Nigeria is a country located in West Africa. It is known for its rich history, diverse cultures, and natural resources. With over 200 million people, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous in the world. The land is full of life and color, with many languages spoken and various traditions practiced.

Geography and Climate

The country has a varied landscape that includes beaches, mountains, forests, and deserts. The climate is tropical, with rainy and dry seasons that change depending on the area. The southern part of Nigeria is mostly wet and green, while the north can be hot and dry. This makes Nigeria home to a wide range of plants and animals, some of which are found nowhere else on Earth.

Nigerian food is as diverse as its people. Dishes are often made with rice, beans, and yams, and are seasoned with spices that make them flavorful. Some popular foods include jollof rice, a spicy dish made with tomatoes and rice, and suya, which is grilled meat with a tasty spice rub. These foods are not just tasty but also a way to bring people together, as meals are a time for family and friends to share stories and enjoy each other’s company.

Nigeria has a growing economy that is one of the largest in Africa. It is rich in resources like oil and natural gas, which are important for the country’s wealth. Agriculture is also a key part of the economy, with many people working in farming to grow crops like cocoa, peanuts, and palm oil. Nigeria’s markets are full of life, with people buying and selling goods every day.

Nigeria is a country with a heart full of rhythm and a spirit that shines. Its landscapes are breathtaking, its cultures are vibrant, and its people are strong and resilient. Even with the difficulties it faces, Nigeria continues to move forward, building a future that honors its rich past and looks ahead with hope. For many Nigerians, their homeland is more than just a place on the map—it is a part of who they are.

That’s it! I hope the essay helped you.

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• Work & Careers
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Edna O’Brien, Irish writer, 1930-2024

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